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Lebanon’s economy shows early signs of recovery in 2025

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President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun

KUWAIT CITY, Aug 10: Since President Joseph Aoun took office in January 2025, Lebanon’s economy has begun showing signs of recovery from the prolonged recession and near-total paralysis that afflicted it for years. Early official indicators point to renewed momentum in the economic reform process, driven by a return to political and institutional stability.

Many local and international observers are hopeful that Lebanon’s security situation will remain stable, as this will positively impact economic reforms. President Joseph Aoun has pledged several reforms, but their success depends heavily on the cooperation and support of all parties.

However, recent political tensions have raised concerns. The withdrawal of Hezbollah and Amal Movement ministers from the latest ministerial meeting in protest against placing the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons on the agenda has sparked fears of renewed political crisis after Lebanon’s slow recovery. As a result, there are growing calls for a return to calm and ministerial stability, and for all ministers to fulfill their responsibilities to ensure continued economic progress. This comes amid international expectations that Lebanon could achieve positive economic growth rates by the end of 2025. However, concerns persist among observers about the risk of Lebanon slipping back into economic decline, particularly given the country’s long-standing struggles with widespread corruption, financial mismanagement, and money laundering.

The Lebanese people are hopeful that the path of economic reform championed by President Joseph Aoun since he assumed office in May will continue, especially in light of recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointing to promising developments. According to the IMF, inflation is expected to decline to 15.2 percent in 2025, especially due to President Aoun’s efforts to promote national unity and reduce political polarization, emphasizing loyalty to the country above sectarian, religious, or partisan divisions. Local and international circles highlighted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s call for global support in rebuilding Lebanon and revitalizing its economy as an important step, especially as the damage to infrastructure and urban areas is estimated to have cost the country over USD 14 billion.

They noted that President Aoun’s commitment to several reform issues, including ensuring the integrity of parliamentary elections, purging state institutions of corrupt officials, and strengthening the army and judiciary through proposed judicial authority legislation, could place Lebanon on a clear path toward meaningful economic recovery. However, the success of these reforms hinges on fulfilling the demands of the president and government to transfer Hezbollah’s weapons to state control and eliminate unusable arms. They emphasized the importance of securing support for the army and security forces, noting that maintaining national security is directly linked to economic recovery and stability.

President Joseph Aoun was also praised for his calls to eliminate bureaucratic obstacles that hinder individual and institutional progress. He has recently underscored the need to activate the role of municipalities, implement the administrative decentralization law, hold parliamentary elections on schedule, and guarantee the voting rights of expatriates, all while urging government ministers to fully assume their responsibilities. Experts agree that implementing these reforms will revitalize the Lebanese economy and guide it onto the right path.

To further stimulate economic recovery, many financial and economic experts have called for robust support of the banking sector. According to the Central Bank of Lebanon, the sector is showing signs of relative recovery, with foreign currency reserves recently reaching USD 11.2 billion, while the Lebanese pound has remained relatively stable compared to previous years.

By Najeh Bilal
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff

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Essentials win, construction slides in H1 subsidy shuffle

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KUWAIT CITY, Aug 13: Subsidies for basic food supplies, milk and baby food, and construction materials increased by 0.9 percent during the first half of 2025, rising by KD 1.6 million compared to the subsidies for construction materials in the same period of 2024. The total value of subsidies reached KD 181.7 million, including KD 95.5 million for construction materials (52.4 percent), KD 77.5 million for basic materials (42.6 percent), and KD 8.8 million for milk and baby food (5 percent) of the total food subsidies during the first half of the year.

Official statistics from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed that approximately 2.3 million individuals benefited from cumulative subsidies by the end of June 2025, along with the registration of about 272,134 cumulative ration cards during the same period.

Detailed data show that subsidies for basic commodities disbursed through ration cards during the first half of the year increased by 14.3 percent, about KD 11.1 million, compared to KD 66.4 million in the same period last year. Subsidies for milk and baby food rose by 18 percent (KD 1.6 million) this year, up from KD 7.2 million in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, subsidies for construction materials declined by 10.5 percent (KD 11.2 million) to KD 95.2 million, compared to KD 106.4 million in the first half of last year.

Statistics also recorded that the Ministry of Commerce and Industry supported food commodities in June with a total of KD 32 million, of which KD 17 million (55 percent) was allocated to basic commodities, which is a 26 percent increase compared to May. Milk and baby food subsidies totaled about KD 2 million, representing 7 percent of the total subsidies disbursed and marking an 84 percent increase compared to the previous month. Subsidies for construction materials amounted to approximately KD 12 million, accounting for 39 percent of the total disbursed and reflecting a 24 percent decrease compared to May.

Data from the Construction Supply Department for June 2025 showed that 333 new requests for subsidized construction materials were issued, which is a 46 percent decrease compared to the previous month. Renewals of subsidized construction material transactions numbered 26, down ten percent, while three requests for exchanging subsidized materials were submitted, a 67 percent decrease. Requests for certificates of receipt of materials totaled 26, a four percent increase, and requests for certificates of non-receipt of materials reached 72, a three percent increase.

By Marwa Al-Bahrawi
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff

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Global Economy Shows Signs of Improvement in Q2 2025: AEO

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Global Economy Shows Signs of Improvement in Q2 2025: AEO

Jamal Al-Loughani, Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO), formerly known as OAPEC.

KUWAIT CITY, Aug 13: The global economy showed signs of relative improvement in the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by accelerated spending on imports in anticipation of higher US tariffs, alongside a general improvement in global financial conditions. This was revealed by Jamal Al-Loughani, Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO), in a statement to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) on Wednesday, following the release of the organization’s second quarterly report on the global oil market.

Al-Loughani noted that the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 was revised upward to 3%, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.8%. He attributed this positive shift to factors such as improved financial conditions and preemptive import spending. However, he cautioned that the lack of comprehensive trade agreements continues to stir concerns about the long-term impact of ongoing global trade uncertainties.

Despite this uptick in global growth, Al-Loughani pointed to a concerning 12.1% decline in the average spot prices of the OPEC basket of crudes, which fell to USD 67.4 per barrel during the second quarter. The prices of crude oil futures also recorded quarterly losses, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by 10.8%, reaching $66.8 and $63.7 per barrel, respectively.

The AEO Secretary-General attributed the drop in oil prices to several factors, including shifts in US trade policy, growing concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, and weaker oil demand. Additionally, he mentioned that the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating due to rising government debt and a slowdown in China’s industrial production and retail sales further dampened investor sentiment.

Global oil supplies showed a slight increase, rising by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 104 million barrels per day. This uptick was largely due to increased output from OPEC+ nations and the United States. On the demand side, however, global oil consumption saw a modest decline of 0.03% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by weaker demand from China and other Asian countries.

OPEC member states experienced a 9.5% decrease in crude oil exports during the second quarter of 2025, dropping to approximately $100 billion. This drop in revenue was primarily attributed to falling oil prices. Al-Loughani noted that these developments had a direct impact on the economic performance of member states, with a decline in oil revenues negatively affecting public finances and external accounts.

Despite these challenges, he emphasized that OPEC member states continued to pursue economic reforms aimed at reducing inflation, stimulating investment, and boosting labor market growth. Furthermore, the non-oil sector provided some support to these economies, helping to mitigate the overall economic impact.

Looking ahead, Al-Loughani expressed optimism for the continued growth of the oil sector, particularly with the OPEC+ decision to implement additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023. These cuts are set to gradually increase production, reaching 411,000 barrels per day in July, 548,000 barrels per day in August, and 457,000 barrels per day in September. This increase in oil production is expected to positively affect oil revenues, which remain a crucial source of national income for member states.

Despite these positive steps, Al-Loughani warned that the global oil market remains surrounded by uncertainty. While OPEC forecasts indicate a decline in oil supplies from non-OPEC+ countries in the third quarter of 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise to approximately 105.5 million barrels per day. These projections, however, remain speculative due to several ongoing uncertainties, including escalating global trade tensions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and concerns over global economic growth.

Al-Loughani praised the continued efforts by OPEC+ countries, including six members of the Arab Energy Organization, to maintain balance and stability in the global oil market. These ongoing precautionary measures are aimed at ensuring the oil market remains resilient amid global economic and geopolitical challenges.

While the global economy has shown signs of recovery in the second quarter of 2025, the outlook for the oil market remains volatile, with both supply and demand factors contributing to continued uncertainty.

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Gulf Bank Concludes Successful Participation in University Admission Fairs at ‎Kuwait University and Abdullah Al-Salem University

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KUWAIT CITY, Aug 12: As part of its ongoing commitment to supporting education and empowering Kuwaiti ‎youth, Gulf Bank has successfully concluded its distinguished participation in the ‎university admission fairs at Kuwait University and Abdullah Al-Salem University. The ‎Bank actively engaged with new students, introducing them to its tailored banking ‎solutions designed specifically for young people.‎

Gulf Bank took part in the interactive admission fair held at Kuwait University’s Sabah ‎Al-Salem University City in Al-Shadadiya from 19 to 29 July 2025. The Bank’s booth ‎attracted a high turnout from students and parents, who showed great interest in the ‎banking services designed for university students.‎

Similarly, the Bank participated in the admission fair hosted by Abdullah Al-Salem ‎University at its Khaldiya campus from 6 to 17 July 2025. Gulf Bank’s presence ‎featured direct interaction with visitors, providing comprehensive information on ‎student accounts and other tailored services.‎

These participations are part of Gulf Bank’s continuous efforts to strengthen ‎engagement with youth and support them in the early stages of their academic journey. ‎Alongside sharing information on academic majors and admission processes, the ‎Bank also offered financial tips to help students manage their resources effectively ‎from the start of their university life.‎

At both events, Gulf Bank showcased its red account, one of its leading banking ‎solutions designed for customers aged 15 to 25. The account offers a wide range of ‎benefits, including prepaid cards, exclusive discounts, rewards on purchases, and ‎access to unique events and experiences that enrich both personal and professional ‎growth. ‎

Beyond its features, the red account serves as a platform to promote financial literacy ‎among youth, equipping them with the knowledge and skills to make informed ‎financial decisions early in life – positively shaping their future and fostering a ‎generation that is financially aware and capable of managing resources effectively.‎

Gulf Bank’s team expressed pride in supporting students throughout their high school ‎and university years, offering innovative banking services designed to keep pace with ‎their fast-paced lifestyles.‎

Gulf Bank concluded its participation by thanking the administrations of both ‎universities for organizing the fairs, which serve as valuable platforms to connect with ‎youth. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to continuing its support for educational ‎and youth initiatives that contribute to Kuwait’s development and enhance the quality ‎of life for its students and community.‎

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