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Trump raises tariffs to 104% on China, fuels fears of global economic recession

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NEW YORK, April 9: Despite significant turmoil in financial markets, threats of retaliation, and pressure from some of President Donald Trump’s key supporters to scale back his signature economic policy, Trump pressed forward with his aggressive stance on trade. On Wednesday, his administration imposed new “reciprocal” tariffs on a range of American allies and adversaries, aiming to, in his words, restore fairness and revitalize American manufacturing.

China, the primary target, now faces tariffs of at least 104%, surpassing the initially planned figures. Trump raised these tariffs further after Beijing maintained its promise to impose 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The new tariff rates, which were based on a formula involving a country’s trade deficit with the U.S., range from 11% to 50%. In this round, key U.S. trading partners such as the European Union (20%), China (34%), Japan (24%), Vietnam (46%), and South Korea (25%) were all affected, with Mexico and Canada being the only major exceptions.

These tariff hikes come just days after Trump levied a 10% universal tariff on all imports except from Mexico and Canada. The 10% tariff is not added to the new reciprocal tariffs; for instance, Japan’s tariff rate increased by 14% on Wednesday after the initial 10% was already applied.

In a recent statement, Trump declared, “Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years. But it is not going to happen anymore.” He reiterated similar remarks just hours before the tariffs went into effect, accusing other countries, particularly China, of “leaving us for dead.”

As these tariffs take effect, both Americans and people worldwide will feel the financial impact. Importers will initially bear the brunt of the tariffs, but those costs are typically passed on to wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately consumers. Foreign businesses are also likely to feel the effects, with American companies potentially seeking goods from countries with lower tariff rates.

The ongoing trade war threatens to escalate, with China’s Foreign Ministry promising to take “resolute and effective measures” to protect its interests, though no immediate retaliatory actions were announced. The market’s reaction has been swift, with several trillion dollars in U.S. stock market value evaporating since April 2, leading to heightened concerns about a global recession. JPMorgan has increased its forecast for a global recession to 60% by year-end if Trump continues with his full tariff plan.

Economists at JPMorgan highlighted that the tariff hikes under Trump’s administration represent the largest U.S. tax increase in nearly six decades. These measures could have significant consequences for household and business spending, leading to retaliation, declining business sentiment, and disruptions to global supply chains. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that American consumers will face an additional $2,100 in annual costs due to these tariffs.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has continued to make bold moves. Prior to this latest round, he had already imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese imports and 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automotive imports.

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for a U.S. recession to 45% within the next year, up from previous estimates. In a note titled “Countdown to a Recession,” the bank’s economists expressed surprise that Trump did not initially announce even higher tariffs and then scale them back.

Economists such as Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, predict that unless significant revisions are made to the tariffs, the U.S. economy will enter a recession by the second quarter of the year. There are even concerns that the tariffs could spark stagflation, a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation rises.

Despite these ominous predictions, not all analysts believe a recession is inevitable. Morgan Stanley analysts have suggested that the U.S. could avoid a downturn if Trump strikes deals with other nations to lower tariffs. Trump’s chief trade adviser, Peter Navarro, echoed this sentiment, confidently telling Fox News that he guaranteed the U.S. economy would not enter a recession.

However, even as dozens of countries have expressed a willingness to negotiate, it remains unclear whether these discussions will yield any results. Trump’s administration has made it clear that non-tariff trade barriers—such as currency manipulation, unfair tax policies, and labor conditions—are at the heart of their trade disputes, and they’ve rejected offers to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods in exchange for similar treatment.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been the hardest hit by Trump’s tariffs, and the U.S. and China are now fully engaged in a trade war. When Trump’s first term ended, the U.S. charged an average tariff rate of 19.3% on Chinese goods, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Under President Biden, these tariffs have remained largely intact, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods increasing slightly to 20.8%.

While both the U.S. and China have benefited from decades of trade, the U.S. has increasingly sought goods from other countries, such as Mexico, which overtook China as the largest source of U.S. imports in 2023. Several other Asian countries, including Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan, have also seen their trade with the U.S. surge since the start of Trump’s presidency.

Even with existing tariffs, China remained a significant supplier of goods to the U.S. in 2024, with $439 billion worth of Chinese goods entering the U.S., while the U.S. exported $144 billion in goods to China. The mutual tariffs imposed by both countries threaten to hurt domestic industries and could lead to layoffs in both nations.

If Trump were to reverse his tariff decisions, much of the economic damage could be mitigated, though some effects would likely remain. Colin Grabow, an associate director at the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, noted that Trump’s approach has damaged U.S. credibility, undermining long-standing free trade agreements and making it difficult for businesses to plan with certainty.

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Essentials win, construction slides in H1 subsidy shuffle

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KUWAIT CITY, Aug 13: Subsidies for basic food supplies, milk and baby food, and construction materials increased by 0.9 percent during the first half of 2025, rising by KD 1.6 million compared to the subsidies for construction materials in the same period of 2024. The total value of subsidies reached KD 181.7 million, including KD 95.5 million for construction materials (52.4 percent), KD 77.5 million for basic materials (42.6 percent), and KD 8.8 million for milk and baby food (5 percent) of the total food subsidies during the first half of the year.

Official statistics from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed that approximately 2.3 million individuals benefited from cumulative subsidies by the end of June 2025, along with the registration of about 272,134 cumulative ration cards during the same period.

Detailed data show that subsidies for basic commodities disbursed through ration cards during the first half of the year increased by 14.3 percent, about KD 11.1 million, compared to KD 66.4 million in the same period last year. Subsidies for milk and baby food rose by 18 percent (KD 1.6 million) this year, up from KD 7.2 million in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, subsidies for construction materials declined by 10.5 percent (KD 11.2 million) to KD 95.2 million, compared to KD 106.4 million in the first half of last year.

Statistics also recorded that the Ministry of Commerce and Industry supported food commodities in June with a total of KD 32 million, of which KD 17 million (55 percent) was allocated to basic commodities, which is a 26 percent increase compared to May. Milk and baby food subsidies totaled about KD 2 million, representing 7 percent of the total subsidies disbursed and marking an 84 percent increase compared to the previous month. Subsidies for construction materials amounted to approximately KD 12 million, accounting for 39 percent of the total disbursed and reflecting a 24 percent decrease compared to May.

Data from the Construction Supply Department for June 2025 showed that 333 new requests for subsidized construction materials were issued, which is a 46 percent decrease compared to the previous month. Renewals of subsidized construction material transactions numbered 26, down ten percent, while three requests for exchanging subsidized materials were submitted, a 67 percent decrease. Requests for certificates of receipt of materials totaled 26, a four percent increase, and requests for certificates of non-receipt of materials reached 72, a three percent increase.

By Marwa Al-Bahrawi
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff

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Global Economy Shows Signs of Improvement in Q2 2025: AEO

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Global Economy Shows Signs of Improvement in Q2 2025: AEO

Jamal Al-Loughani, Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO), formerly known as OAPEC.

KUWAIT CITY, Aug 13: The global economy showed signs of relative improvement in the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by accelerated spending on imports in anticipation of higher US tariffs, alongside a general improvement in global financial conditions. This was revealed by Jamal Al-Loughani, Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO), in a statement to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) on Wednesday, following the release of the organization’s second quarterly report on the global oil market.

Al-Loughani noted that the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 was revised upward to 3%, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.8%. He attributed this positive shift to factors such as improved financial conditions and preemptive import spending. However, he cautioned that the lack of comprehensive trade agreements continues to stir concerns about the long-term impact of ongoing global trade uncertainties.

Despite this uptick in global growth, Al-Loughani pointed to a concerning 12.1% decline in the average spot prices of the OPEC basket of crudes, which fell to USD 67.4 per barrel during the second quarter. The prices of crude oil futures also recorded quarterly losses, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by 10.8%, reaching $66.8 and $63.7 per barrel, respectively.

The AEO Secretary-General attributed the drop in oil prices to several factors, including shifts in US trade policy, growing concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, and weaker oil demand. Additionally, he mentioned that the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating due to rising government debt and a slowdown in China’s industrial production and retail sales further dampened investor sentiment.

Global oil supplies showed a slight increase, rising by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 104 million barrels per day. This uptick was largely due to increased output from OPEC+ nations and the United States. On the demand side, however, global oil consumption saw a modest decline of 0.03% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by weaker demand from China and other Asian countries.

OPEC member states experienced a 9.5% decrease in crude oil exports during the second quarter of 2025, dropping to approximately $100 billion. This drop in revenue was primarily attributed to falling oil prices. Al-Loughani noted that these developments had a direct impact on the economic performance of member states, with a decline in oil revenues negatively affecting public finances and external accounts.

Despite these challenges, he emphasized that OPEC member states continued to pursue economic reforms aimed at reducing inflation, stimulating investment, and boosting labor market growth. Furthermore, the non-oil sector provided some support to these economies, helping to mitigate the overall economic impact.

Looking ahead, Al-Loughani expressed optimism for the continued growth of the oil sector, particularly with the OPEC+ decision to implement additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023. These cuts are set to gradually increase production, reaching 411,000 barrels per day in July, 548,000 barrels per day in August, and 457,000 barrels per day in September. This increase in oil production is expected to positively affect oil revenues, which remain a crucial source of national income for member states.

Despite these positive steps, Al-Loughani warned that the global oil market remains surrounded by uncertainty. While OPEC forecasts indicate a decline in oil supplies from non-OPEC+ countries in the third quarter of 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise to approximately 105.5 million barrels per day. These projections, however, remain speculative due to several ongoing uncertainties, including escalating global trade tensions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and concerns over global economic growth.

Al-Loughani praised the continued efforts by OPEC+ countries, including six members of the Arab Energy Organization, to maintain balance and stability in the global oil market. These ongoing precautionary measures are aimed at ensuring the oil market remains resilient amid global economic and geopolitical challenges.

While the global economy has shown signs of recovery in the second quarter of 2025, the outlook for the oil market remains volatile, with both supply and demand factors contributing to continued uncertainty.

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Gulf Bank Concludes Successful Participation in University Admission Fairs at ‎Kuwait University and Abdullah Al-Salem University

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KUWAIT CITY, Aug 12: As part of its ongoing commitment to supporting education and empowering Kuwaiti ‎youth, Gulf Bank has successfully concluded its distinguished participation in the ‎university admission fairs at Kuwait University and Abdullah Al-Salem University. The ‎Bank actively engaged with new students, introducing them to its tailored banking ‎solutions designed specifically for young people.‎

Gulf Bank took part in the interactive admission fair held at Kuwait University’s Sabah ‎Al-Salem University City in Al-Shadadiya from 19 to 29 July 2025. The Bank’s booth ‎attracted a high turnout from students and parents, who showed great interest in the ‎banking services designed for university students.‎

Similarly, the Bank participated in the admission fair hosted by Abdullah Al-Salem ‎University at its Khaldiya campus from 6 to 17 July 2025. Gulf Bank’s presence ‎featured direct interaction with visitors, providing comprehensive information on ‎student accounts and other tailored services.‎

These participations are part of Gulf Bank’s continuous efforts to strengthen ‎engagement with youth and support them in the early stages of their academic journey. ‎Alongside sharing information on academic majors and admission processes, the ‎Bank also offered financial tips to help students manage their resources effectively ‎from the start of their university life.‎

At both events, Gulf Bank showcased its red account, one of its leading banking ‎solutions designed for customers aged 15 to 25. The account offers a wide range of ‎benefits, including prepaid cards, exclusive discounts, rewards on purchases, and ‎access to unique events and experiences that enrich both personal and professional ‎growth. ‎

Beyond its features, the red account serves as a platform to promote financial literacy ‎among youth, equipping them with the knowledge and skills to make informed ‎financial decisions early in life – positively shaping their future and fostering a ‎generation that is financially aware and capable of managing resources effectively.‎

Gulf Bank’s team expressed pride in supporting students throughout their high school ‎and university years, offering innovative banking services designed to keep pace with ‎their fast-paced lifestyles.‎

Gulf Bank concluded its participation by thanking the administrations of both ‎universities for organizing the fairs, which serve as valuable platforms to connect with ‎youth. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to continuing its support for educational ‎and youth initiatives that contribute to Kuwait’s development and enhance the quality ‎of life for its students and community.‎

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