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OPEC+ aligns with Trump’s push for lower oil prices?!

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LAST week, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil output for this month and the next. This appears to be in support of the trend of lowering oil prices. Or perhaps it is a warning to member c o u n t r i e s that have been exceeding their agreed production quotas in violation of OPEC’s resolutions. Currently, oil prices are around $ 64 per barrel, a level few expected, and one for which there seems to be no real reason.

The increase in supply since last month, continuing into June, could be interpreted as a signal to non-compliant members: either adhere to production limits or risk driving prices down further, which will cause hurt to everyone. At $ 64 per barrel, everyone loses. Member countries will suffer financially and will be forced to turn to international banks for funding. While banks may be willing to lend, the terms and credit ratings will likely worsen, especially as uncertainty grows over how long oil prices will remain weak, given the abundant supply and the current U.S. administration’s strong push for domestic oil exploration and production in America.

OPEC, on the other hand, is currently producing around 30 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 200,000 barrels per day compared to last year. However, this rise in output comes with lower daily revenue due to weaker oil prices, offering little to no financial benefit for OPEC member countries. The root of the issue lies in the noncompliance of two to three member states, whose overproduction has led to huge financial losses for the organization and, more importantly, damaged its reputation as a disciplined and coherent organization.

Events in the coming weeks may provide more clarity on the future of the oil market, particularly with the anticipated visit of the leader of the world’s largest oil-producing country. His meetings with the heads of GCC countries could help stabilize the market, or potentially signal the beginning of a new oil order. For now, we await the outcomes and their effect on global oil prices. One thing is clear: the current level of $64 per barrel is unlikely to last. A rebound to around $70 by year-end seems more probable.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst

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Trump and Putin hint at US-Russia trade revival, but business environment remains hostile

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NY495

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with members of Russia’s business community at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia on May 26. (AP)

WASHINGTON, May 31, (AP): Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including major US firms like Coca-Cola, Nike, Starbucks, ExxonMobil and Ford Motor Co. But after more than three years of war, President Donald Trump has held out the prospect of restoring U.S.-Russia trade if there’s ever a peace settlement.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin has said foreign companies could come back under some circumstances. “Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump said in a statement after a phone call with Putin. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

The president then shifted his tone toward Putin after heavy drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, saying Putin “has gone absolutely crazy” and threatening new sanctions. That and recent comments from Putin warning Western companies against reclaiming their former stakes seemed to reflect reality more accurately – that it’s not going to be a smooth process for businesses going back into Russia.

That’s because Russia’s business environment has massively changed since 2022. And not in ways that favor foreign companies. And with Putin escalating attacks and holding on to territory demands Ukraine likely isn’t going to accept, a peace deal seems distant indeed. Here are factors that could deter US companies from ever going back: Russian law classifies Ukraine’s allies as “unfriendly states” and imposes severe restrictions on businesses from more than 50 countries.

Those include limits on withdrawing money and equipment as well as allowing the Russian government to take control of companies deemed important. Foreign owners’ votes on boards of directors can be legally disregarded. Companies that left were required to sell their businesses for 50% or less of their assessed worth, or simply wrote them off while Kremlin-friendly business groups snapped up their assets on the cheap. 

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Trump tells US steelworkers he’s going to double tariffs on foreign steel to 50%

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MDJE421

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the rain after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md on May 30. (AP)

WEST MIFFLIN, Pa, May 31, (AP): US President Donald Trump on Friday told Pennsylvania steelworkers he’s doubling the tariff on steel imports to 50% to protect their industry, a dramatic increase that could further push up prices for a metal used to make housing, autos and other goods. In a post later on his Truth Social platform, he added that aluminum tariffs would also be doubled to 50%. He said both tariff hikes would go into effect Wednesday.

Trump spoke at US Steel’s Mon Valley Works-Irvin Plant in suburban Pittsburgh, where he also discussed a details-to-come deal under which Japan’s Nippon Steel will invest in the iconic American steelmaker. Trump told reporters after he arrived back in Washington that he still has to approve the deal. “I have to approve the final deal with Nippon and we haven’t seen that final deal yet, but they’ve made a very big commitment and it’s a very big investment,” he said.

Though Trump initially vowed to block the Japanese steelmaker’s bid to buy Pittsburgh-based US Steel, he reversed course and announced an agreement last week for “partial ownership” by Nippon. It’s unclear, though, if the deal his administration helped broker has been finalized or how ownership would be structured.

Nippon Steel has never said it is backing off its bid to outright buy and control US Steel as a wholly owned subsidiary, even as it increased the amount of money it promised to invest in US Steel plants and gave guarantees that it wouldn’t lay off workers or close plants as it sought federal approval of the acquisition. “We’re here today to celebrate a blockbuster agreement that will ensure this storied American company stays an American company,” Trump said as he opened an event at one of US Steel’s warehouses.

“You’re going to stay an American company, you know that, right?” As for the tariffs, Trump said doubling the levies on imported steel “will even further secure the steel industry in the US.” But such a dramatic increase could push prices even higher. Steel prices have climbed 16% since Trump became president in mid-January, according to the government’s Producer Price Index.   

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Kuwait Wins Big at Sharjah Finance Awards

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Kuwait’s Minister of Finance Noura Al-Fassam in a group photo.

KUWAIT CITY, May 29: The Ministry of Finance said it won the third edition of the Sharjah Award for Public Finance (2024-2025) in recognition of its outstanding role in providing financial services. Representatives of 17 countries vied for the award, the Ministry noted in a press release on Wednesday. Minister of Finance Noura Al- Fassam stated that winning this award reflects the ministry’s efforts in improving the efficiency of financial performance and enhancing the quality of services provided. The ministry confirmed that it is continuing to develop financial services under directives from the Council of Ministers towards digitizing services. The statement added that Al-Fassam received the award on behalf of the ministry, which participated in the digital payment project for government services that enables government entities to purchase online, pay government fees, and meet various needs to fulfill their financial obligations. (KUNA)

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