Business
World shares and US futures advance after China-US trade pact
President Donald Trump, left, poses for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (AP)
HONG KONG, May 12, (AP): World shares and U.S. futures surged Monday after the U.S. and China announced they were suspending for 90 days most of the sharp tariff hikes each has imposed since U.S. President Donald Trump began escalating his trade war.
A joint statement said that for a 90-day period, the U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from as high as 145%. China said its tariffs on U.S. goods will fall to 10% from 125%. The agreement to allow time for more talks followed weekend negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, that the U.S. side said had made ” substantial progress.”
The full impact on the complicated tariffs and other trade penalties enacted by Washington and Beijing remains unclear. And much depends on whether they will find ways to bridge longstanding differences during the 90-day suspension.
But as trade envoys from the world’s two biggest economies blinked, finding ways to pull back from potentially massive disruptions to world trade and their own markets, investors rejoiced.
The future for the S&P 500 jumped 2.6% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2%. Oil prices rallied, with U.S. benchmark crude oil gaining $1.66 to $62.68 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added $1.63 to $65.55 per barrel. The U.S. dollar surged against the Japanese yen, trading at 148.18 Japanese yen, up from 146.17 yen.
The euro fell to $1.1107 from $1.1209. In other stock trading, Tokyo’s market closed before the joint statement was issued, gaining less than 0.1% to 37,644.26. But Hong Kong’s, which closes later, jumped 3% to 23,558.11. Germany’s DAX gained 1% to 23,723.55 and the CAC 40 in Paris added 0.8% to 7,805.62. Britain’s FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher, to 8,560.42.
Investors were also watching for developments in other flashpoints including clashes between India and Pakistan, the war in Ukraine, and conflict in the Middle East.
The Sensex in Mumbai shot up 3.2% after India and Pakistan agreed to a truce after talks to defuse their most serious military confrontation in decades. The two armies have exchanged gunfire, artillery strikes, missiles, and drones that killed dozens of people.
Pakistan’s KSE 100 surged more than 9% and trading was halted for one hour following a spike driven by the ceasefire and an International Monetary Fund decision Friday to disburse about $1 billion of a bailout package for its battered economy. The Shanghai Composite Index picked up 0.8% to 3,369.24.
Chinese EV battery maker CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., said in a prospectus filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it plans to raise nearly $4 billion in a share listing.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Kospi in Seoul gained 1.2% to 2,607.33. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed less than 0.1% to 8,233.50. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 1%. On Friday, U.S. stocks drifted, with the S&P 500 edging 0.1% lower.
Last week was the first in seven where the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts moved by less than 1.5%, after careening on fears about President Donald Trump’s trade war and hopes that he’ll relent on some of his tariffs.
The Dow dipped 0.3%, while the Nasdaq composite edged up by less than 0.1%. Apart from trade talks and other geopolitical factors, the flow of earnings reports for the start of the year from companies is slowing but still moving markets.
TWO of the biggest American oil companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron, are locked in a legal battle over an oilfield in Guyana. Both companies are industry giants and pioneers with a presence in oil fields worldwide. They have their hands in every oil field, regardless of location. Oil is their bread and butter. They are the biggest in the field with unmatched expertise. Today, however, they find themselves in a legal battle in a London court over the ownership of a massive oil project, estimated to hold over$1 trillion in reserves. The outcome of this case carries huge implications for the global oil industry. The two U.S. oil supermajors are battling over a 30 percent stake in a major oil field in Guyana, which is currently owned by Hess Corporation, a U.S. energy company that agreed to a $54 billion takeover by Chevron in 2023.
ExxonMobil, which already owns approximately 45 percent of the same field, claims it holds a “first right of refusal” under its existing agreement. This is likely to be a long legal battle over a valuable oil reserve, which is what every oil company wants. The fight between the world’s two biggest oil firms could shape the future of the industry. Whoever wins will strengthen their position in the global market. For ExxonMobil, the most valuable American oil company, winning could help it stay on top. The two oil companies are no match for national oil companies in terms of oil reserves, nor do they possess as much oil as those state-owned companies.
However, they do have the know-how, the experience, and the technology to operate in almost any oil field in the world. They are always in desperate need of more oil reserves and will go anywhere, to any place, in search of a few barrels of black gold. It is their bread and butter. For Guyana, with its small population and clean environment, there is no real need for the polluting effects of black oil to disrupt its natural surroundings. However, the financial rewards are too great to ignore, offering the country a chance to place itself on the global energy map. With oil reserves exceeding 12 billion barrels, and more expansion on the horizon, Guyana stands to gain immensely. The current legal battle between the two oil giants is over a prize worth more than $1 trillion. In the end, Chevron has more at stake and a greater need to win, as it aims to boost its oil reserves to better compete with the world’s leading oil company, ExxonMobil. It is a matter of competition and narrowing the gap with its top rival. Without a doubt, this is a case well worth fighting for.
By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst
Email: [email protected]
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