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Bad news – oil prices plunge below $70 pb

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 Demand for oil is weak from major consumers in Asia, including China, Japan, and South Korea, with a reduction of more than 400,000 barrels per day. These countries are the main consumers of oil from Arabian Gulf producers, so the decline will have a major impact on Gulf economies without exception. In addition, demand in the United States has slowed by 70,000 barrels per day, along with reduced demand from Mexico. Oil prices have now fallen below $68 a barrel, a level not seen even during the 2009 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic.

The sad reality is that oil prices are now much lower than in previous years, possibly reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs, which may also be affecting domestic demand. Meanwhile, Europe and emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, and Vietnam show reduced demand. This could suggest that Far East countries either have surplus oil with no available storage capacity, or they are holding off in anticipation of further price drops. This is certainly bad news for OPEC, which recently increased crude output, pushing more than one million barrels per day in excess into the market.

With global oil demand at 104 million barrels per day and supply at 105.2 million, the market is now oversupplied by over one million barrels daily, and it is struggling to find buyers. As a result, prices have dropped below $68 a barrel, with no immediate signs of recovery. The question remains whether OPEC+ will return to its traditional policy of supporting crude oil prices by cutting production, a strategy that may ultimately benefit non-OPEC producers and erode OPEC+’s market share. This could lead to the same cycle of repeated policy shifts. Or will this time be different, as OPEC+ becomes more accustomed to outside borrowing? The oil market needs stability and clear guidance from OPEC+ to take the right actions that balance supply while managing oil prices at an acceptable level. This raises questions about the effectiveness of the quota system and the success of the overall policy of OPEC+. Most of the time, their measures work only briefly before the organization relaxes its stance. When oil prices rise, other producers increase output to capitalize on the situation, undermining OPEC’s efforts. This cycle repeats as prices eventually harden again.

The decline in oil prices is likely to continue, and nothing can change this unless OPEC+ intervenes as usual by calling for further production cuts, resulting, as always, in losses for the organization. As mentioned before, OPEC+ is relying heavily on borrowing from external banking sources to cover its deficits, a trend that is expected to continue unless oil-producing countries reduce their expenses and cut their budgets. In addition, it is important to explore new sources of income. Governments must also focus on creating jobs for recent graduates despite the drop in oil revenues. The future looks challenging, with lower oil prices and reduced income from oil. Our governments need to find alternative revenue streams and provide job opportunities for new entrants to the labor market. We must face these new realities – weaker oil prices, higher expenses, and growing numbers of job seekers. These are the new challenges facing the Arabian Gulf countries amid a period of lower oil prices.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst
Email: [email protected]

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KNPC to build 16 fuel stations in Kuwait

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KUWAIT CITY, July 31: Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has obtained approval to build 16 fuel stations this year, say sources from the oil sector. Sources disclosed that the stations will be located in new residential cities, while some densely populated residential areas will have additional fuel stations.

Sources said the company aims to increase its sales of all types of gasoline to at least seven million liters by 2030, considering that its sales exceeded 5.105 million liters of gasoline by the end of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025; compared to 5.016 million liters in the previous year and around 4.891 million liters in 2023. Sources confirmed that the company is targeting increased revenues from car wash stations, whose revenues declined in fiscal 2024/2025 to KD393,300 compared to KD432,000 in the previous fiscal year. Sources indicated that KNPC is planning to develop its car wash stations to achieve the targeted returns. Sources stated that KNPC will establish new fuel stations in line with environmental cleanliness and international requirements, particularly the strategy of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) to achieve carbon neutrality. Sources added the company intends to implement many initiatives related to its projects and refineries in order to reduce carbon emissions.

Moreover, sources confirmed that the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of KNPC Wadha Al-Khatib ensured that around 120 Kuwaiti employees under contractor contracts were treated fairly as their salaries, which exceeded the top of the grade scale, were not affected. Sources said these employees remain entitled to promotions and job placements under the regulations. Sources added that the Kuwaitis employed at Al-Dar Company, which implements service projects for KNPC, will soon receive their end-of-service benefits.

Sources also stated that the executive management of KNPC prioritizes nationals, such that it periodically announces job advertisements to increase the percentage of nationals working in the company to compensate for the decline in 2025. They revealed that in the first quarter of this year, the number of Kuwaiti workers reached 5,864; compared to about 6,007 during the same period in 2024. The percentage of national workers in KNPC stands at 92.4 percent, which, sources stressed, is a good percentage. They went on to say that Al-Khatib’s recent instructions to the leadership of the company center on the need to increase the national human capital and develop their functional capabilities. They added that KNPC organized many training courses for the national workforce in cooperation with local and international institutions.

By Najeh Bilal
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff

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Pakistan and US reach a trade deal to develop oil reserves and reduce tariffs

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, shakes the hand of Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, left, at the State Department, Friday, July 25, in Washington. (AP)

ISLAMABAD, July 31, (AP):The United States and Pakistan reached a trade agreement expected to allow Washington to help develop Pakistan’s largely untapped oil reserves and lower tariffs for the South Asian country, officials from both nations said Thursday.

Officials did not specify where the exploration would take place, but most of Pakistan’s reserves are believed to be in the insurgency-hit southwestern province of Balochistan, where separatists say the province’s natural resources are being exploited by the central government in Islamabad.

“We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“We are in the process of choosing the oil company that will lead this partnership,” Trump added. “Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling oil to India someday!”

Total U.S. trade with Pakistan was an estimated $7.3 billion in 2024, according to the Office of the United States Representative, which said on its website that U.S. exports to Pakistan in 2024 were $2.1 billion, up 4.4% ($90.9 million) from 2023. U.S. imports from Pakistan totaled $5.1 billion in 2024, up 4.9% ($238.7 million) from 2023, it said.

There was no immediate comment from the Baloch nationalists and separatist groups. Balochistan has long been the center of violence mostly blamed on groups including the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army, or BLA, which the U.S. designated a terrorist organization in 2019.

Separatists in Balochistan have opposed the extraction of resources by Pakistani and foreign firms and have targeted Pakistani security forces and Chinese nationals working on multibillion-dollar projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Oil reserves are also thought to exist in the southern Sindh, eastern Punjab and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the “long-awaited” deal and thanked Trump for playing a key role in finalizing it.

Pakistan had been pursuing a trade agreement since May, when Trump mediated a ceasefire between Pakistan and India following an escalation triggered by Indian airstrikes on Pakistani territory in response to the killing of 26 tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Pakistan’s Finance Ministry said in a statement early Thursday the agreement aims to boost bilateral trade, expand market access, attract investment and foster cooperation in areas of mutual interest.

The breakthrough came during a meeting in Washington between Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and senior U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer.

The deal includes a reduction in reciprocal tariffs, particularly on Pakistani exports to the U.S., the statement from the ministry said. “The agreement enhances Pakistan’s access to the U.S. market and vice versa,” it said. The agreement is also expected to spur increased U.S. investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and development projects, it added.

The ministry said the deal reflects both nations’ commitment to deepening bilateral ties and strengthening trade and investment cooperation.

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Asian shares mostly down after South Korea makes tariff deal, US stocks fall

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Vehicles for export are parked at a port in Pyeongtaek, South Korea on July 31. (AP)

MANILA, Philippines, July 31, (AP): Asian shares were mostly lower Thursday after U.S. stocks slipped, as doubts rose on Wall Street about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver economy-juicing cuts to interest rates by September. Bucking the trend, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.1% to 41,075.85 after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.5% and raised inflation projections. The move follows Tokyo’s trade deal with Washington.

In Seoul, the Kospi edged down 0.6% to 3,235.83 after South Korea reached a 15% tariff deal with the US, with no levies on American goods like cars, trucks and farm products. The deal also includes South Korea’s purchase of $100 billion US energy imports and $350 billion worth of investments in the U.S. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.1% to 24,814.59, while the Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.8% to 3,586.13.

Australia’s S&P ASX 200 shed 0.2% to 8,741.90. India’s BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 81,169.49. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 0.3% to 23,542.52 Rabo Bank, citing the U.S. trade deals with other countries, including Bangladesh, said in a commentary that “it appears to be only a matter of time before India agrees to terms to ensure that it retains favorable access to the US market and all of those other markets that (US President Donald) Trump has demonstrated he has the power to direct through economic coercion.”

Rabo added that the terms of a US-India trade deal would almost certainly include Indian purchases of US arms and energy products and preferential access to U.S. agricultural goods. “A potential loser in all of this is Australia. With the US sending more wheat to Indonesia and Bangladesh and more LNG to Japan and South Korea, Australian exports stand to be displaced from their traditional markets,” it added.

Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on imports coming from India, along with an additional tax because of India’s purchases of Russian oil, beginning Friday. That’s when stiff tariffs Trump has proposed for many other countries are also scheduled to kick in, unless they reach trade deals that lower the rates.

But the US president said the two countries were still in negotiations. On Wall Street on Wednesday the S&P 500 edged down by 0.1%, coming off its first loss after setting all-time highs for six successive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1%. Stocks felt pressure from rising Treasury yields in the bond market after the Federal Reserve voted to hold its main interest rate steady. The move may upset Trump, who has been lobbying for lower interest rates, but it was widely expected on Wall Street.  

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