This is the outlook for oil prices in the coming months, as Brent crude is hovering around $61 a barrel, and U.S. oil is trading in the mid-fifties per barrel. Both levels are unsatisfactory and are hurting oil producers. However, the blame lies with all producers. Each one is pushing to increase production to gain market share, trying to capture new markets or a bigger share. Since oil production is essentially open to all, with no monitoring of production quotas, prices are allowed to drop further, while producers anticipate higher demand growth in the coming years. With the current political situation becoming more stable and less tense, and ongoing efforts to resolve conflicts behind closed doors, the world is moving towards greater understanding, stability, and tranquility.

This progress paves the way for oil prices to remain steady, with hopes for an increase in oil demand. However, it remains to be seen whether India will refrain from buying and importing Russian crude oil. The question is – who can supply India with surplus oil at equally attractive discounted prices and terms? Replacing a major supplier like Russia, especially with such favorable conditions, will be a big challenge for India, requiring considerable political muscle to wean itself off Russian oil. We have to wait and see how India will handle the pressure from the U.S. administration to break its oil supply ties with Russia, and how India will be rewarded by the U.S. for complying. It is very difficult for India to switch suppliers on such short notice.

The situation looks similar to what Europe is currently facing regarding oil and gas supplies from Russia. With Russian-built refineries in Europe, there is a real risk of panic and shortages of petroleum products in many European countries, unless the U.S. temporarily eases its restrictions and allows Europe to continue trading with Russia in hydrocarbon activities. Today, all oil-producing countries are pushing to sell more oil into the market, creating a surplus and causing further weakening of oil prices. There is concern that prices could drop to $60 a barrel, or even the mid-fifties, similar to the current U.S. oil price of around $57 a barrel, sparking panic in the oil markets. Meanwhile, OPEC+ appears unable or unwilling to curtail supply, seemingly having learned a lesson that any crude oil supply reduction and resulting price increase mostly benefit non- OPEC producers, leaving OPEC+ with minimal gains.

As a result, their current policy of not interfering in the market may be the most practical solution by spreading the pain equally. We hope that OPEC+ has indeed learned this lesson and will avoid further supply cuts unless they clearly stand to benefit first. We expect oil prices to decline further once the geopolitical tensions between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine begin to ease in a satisfactory manner, helping to avert the threat of conflict and crisis. The current ample oil supply, despite peak demand season, raises questions about how low prices might fall, and whether oil-producing countries will intervene to stabilize or boost prices.

Gold surges for the ninth consecutive week, touching a new high of $4,379 per ounce.

KUWAIT CITY, Oct 19: Gold prices extended their historic rally for the ninth consecutive week, closing at $4,251 per ounce, according to a specialized report issued Sunday by Dar Al-Sabayek, a Kuwaiti precious metals company. The yellow metal recorded weekly gains of 5.32%, after briefly touching a record high of $4,379 per ounce during the last trading session, before easing slightly amid improved investor risk appetite and a stronger US dollar.

Despite a 3% pullback following market-soothing comments related to the US-China trade dispute, the overall outlook for gold remains bullish, driven by a range of supportive global factors.

Dar Al-Sabayek’s report indicated that expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting—and the potential for a second cut in December—continue to fuel institutional demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additional factors include uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown, central bank purchases, and strong traded flows, all of which reflect broader concerns and hedging activity among global investors.

The report noted that geopolitical tensions and rising credit risks in the United States are contributing to sustained hedging behavior, even amid day-to-day price volatility. Meanwhile, the US dollar index remained relatively firm, hovering near 98.40 against major currencies, tempering further gains for the precious metal.

The tone of the US Federal Reserve remains cautious, the report said, with some members supporting rate cuts while reaffirming their commitment to the 2% inflation target. Future policy decisions are expected to be highly data-driven, with particular attention to this week’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which coincides with the launch of the corporate earnings season and may influence consumer demand and spending patterns.

Market focus is also shifting toward global economic indicators, including Chinese GDP, trade, and inflation data, as well as Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) in Europe, the UK, Japan, India, and Australia. Upcoming monetary policy decisions in Turkey, Indonesia, and South Korea may also reshape risk sentiment and investment flows, further influencing gold prices.

Dar Al-Sabayek emphasized that gold’s medium-term upward trend, which began in November 2022, remains intact, driven by ongoing global uncertainties. However, it cautioned that with prices approaching historical highs, periods of short-term profit-taking are expected. Nonetheless, any dip toward key support levels may present fresh opportunities for long-term investors, particularly those concerned with issues such as global debt accumulation, sluggish economic growth, and waning confidence in the US dollar.

These global trends have also been reflected in the Kuwaiti domestic market, where the price of 24-karat gold reached KD 42.50 (approximately USD 140.20) per gram, and 22-karat gold was priced at KD 38.96 (approximately USD 128.30). Meanwhile, a kilogram of silver was recorded at KD 625 (around USD 2,062).

H.E. Ayub Khan Yunusov, Ambassador of Uzbekistan to Kuwait

KUWAIT CITY, Oct 18: Ambassador of Uzbekistan to Kuwait Ayub Khan Yunusov said the representatives of 20 Kuwaiti companies will visit his country next month to meet with their Uzbek counterparts and identify opportunities for cooperation. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Uzbek Language Day celebration, Yunusov disclosed that around 200 Kuwaitis visited Uzbekistan in September, and he expects this number to increase to more than 500 before the end of the year.

He stated that there are four direct flights per week, and that the Uzbek community in Kuwait numbers less than 300, most of whom work in the fields of medicine, education, music and engineering, particularly at the new Kuwait Airport He also affirmed the presence of several Kuwaiti investments in his country, the most recent of which is in the health sector in the city of Sirgana, through the establishment of medical laboratories there. Regarding the occasion, Yunusov stated that his country celebrates Uzbek Language Day on Oct 21 each year, stressing it is a precious national occasion to renew pride in cultural identity and strengthen the status of the mother tongue as an official language, which expresses the unity of the Uzbek people and their ancient history.

By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff