OIL prices are currently hovering around $67- $68 per barrel, despite weak global demand and ongoing uncertainties in the global trade market. The main factor contributing to this is the impact of President Trump’s global tariffs, which are affecting consumers worldwide. The level of tariff increases has shocked the global economy, though it remains uncertain whether the current U.S. administration will maintain its stance or implement a three-month pause. The question here is: how long will global trade remain in such a state of unpredictable turmoil? How will the global economy navigate through these uncertainties? A global recession seems inevitable, and its effects are being felt in all countries.
How will the world economy be reshaped post-recession? It may possibly lead to new mechanisms for global restructuring and sharing, with perhaps a new economic and trade alliance. Will China dominate the global economy? How will other countries fit into a new economic structure and alliance outside of the US? Or will the US be part of this new order? After such a turbulent experience with unpredictable tariffs being imposed without proper foresight or long-term strategy, who will want to partner with America? These actions have caused panic in the global economy, causing market chaos with little to no warning. In just 24 hours, the global markets were thrown into turmoil, with stock markets nearly paralyzed and all eyes glued to the screens, unsure of how to react.
Kamel Al-Harami
As a result, oil companies are scaling back their long-term projects and slowing down drilling activities. Shale drillers, in particular, are reducing operations. These same companies, which helped the US become one of the largest oil producers in the world with over 13.5 million barrels of crude oil production, are now facing challenges. With the current US oil price at $63 per barrel, shale producers cannot continue searching for new oil reserves.
Their internal economics require a price range of $60-$70 per barrel to be viable. Adding to the difficulties, the price of steel has risen by 25 percent due to new tariffs, and a 10 percent levy on other drilling equipment is further raising costs. As a result, the break-even point is being pushed above $70 per barrel. If prices don’t rise to this level, new wells will not be drilled, leading to further cost-cutting and job reductions. We then enter the same cycle, where both major oil companies and smaller local producers struggle to sustain operations amidst low oil prices. The conversation shifts back to the boardroom, where decisions are made regarding future plans, with an eye on potential optimistic scenarios for oil prices.
At the same time, companies must navigate hard challenges, including adjusting to new figures, dealing with tariffs, and cutting costs. The important question remains: how to weather this storm and for how long? Oil-producing countries, too, will soon face the reality of meeting with global financial institutions to borrow billions to cover their massive annual budget deficits. For some of these nations, this will be their first experience with deficit financing. Oil prices are up but demand is definitely down. It is now time to save… and to save wisely.
TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.
The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.
The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.
However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.
“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.
But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.
Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>
Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees
KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.
Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.
By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)
MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum.