LAST week, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil output for this month and the next. This appears to be in support of the trend of lowering oil prices. Or perhaps it is a warning to member c o u n t r i e s that have been exceeding their agreed production quotas in violation of OPEC’s resolutions. Currently, oil prices are around $ 64 per barrel, a level few expected, and one for which there seems to be no real reason.

The increase in supply since last month, continuing into June, could be interpreted as a signal to non-compliant members: either adhere to production limits or risk driving prices down further, which will cause hurt to everyone. At $ 64 per barrel, everyone loses. Member countries will suffer financially and will be forced to turn to international banks for funding. While banks may be willing to lend, the terms and credit ratings will likely worsen, especially as uncertainty grows over how long oil prices will remain weak, given the abundant supply and the current U.S. administration’s strong push for domestic oil exploration and production in America.

OPEC, on the other hand, is currently producing around 30 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 200,000 barrels per day compared to last year. However, this rise in output comes with lower daily revenue due to weaker oil prices, offering little to no financial benefit for OPEC member countries. The root of the issue lies in the noncompliance of two to three member states, whose overproduction has led to huge financial losses for the organization and, more importantly, damaged its reputation as a disciplined and coherent organization.

Events in the coming weeks may provide more clarity on the future of the oil market, particularly with the anticipated visit of the leader of the world’s largest oil-producing country. His meetings with the heads of GCC countries could help stabilize the market, or potentially signal the beginning of a new oil order. For now, we await the outcomes and their effect on global oil prices. One thing is clear: the current level of $64 per barrel is unlikely to last. A rebound to around $70 by year-end seems more probable.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst

Travelers check American Airlines flight information screens for their flight status at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago on Feb 22, 2023. (AP)

WASHINGTON, May 10, (AP): Expedia Group said Friday that reduced travel demand in the United States led to its weaker-than-expected revenue in the first quarter, and Bank of America said credit card transactions showed spending on flights and lodging kept falling last month. The two reports add to growing indications that the US travel and tourism industry may see its first slowdown since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic fueled a period of “revenge travel” that turned into sustained interest in getting away.

Expedia, which owns the lodging reservation platforms Hotels.com and VRBO as well as an eponymous online travel agency, was the latest American company to report slowing business with both international visitors and domestic travelers. Airbnb and Hilton noted the same trends last week in their quarterly earnings reports.

Most major US airlines pulled their full-year financial guidance in April and said they planned to reduce scheduled flights, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. The USTravel Association has said that economic uncertainty and anxiety over President Donald Trump’s tariffs may explain the pullback. In April, Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for a fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Bank of America said Friday that its credit card holders were willing to spend on “nice to have” services like eating at restaurants in March and April, but “bigger ticket discretionary outlays on airfare and lodging continued to decline, possibly due to declining consumer confidence and worries about the economic outlook.”

Abroad, anger about the tariffs as well as concern about tourist detentions at the US border have made citizens of some other countries less interested in traveling to the US, tourism industry experts say. The US government said last month that 7.1 million visitors entered the U.S. from overseas this year as of the end of March, 3.3% fewer than during the first three months of 2024.

The numbers did not include land crossings from Mexico or travel from Canada, where citizens have expressed indignation over Trump’s remarks about making their country the 51st state. Both US and Canadian government data have shown steep declines in border crossings from Canada. Expedia Chief Financial Officer Scott Schenkel said the net value of the travel technology company’s bookings into the US fell 7% in the January-March period, but bookings to the U.S. from Canada were down nearly 30%. 

Minister of Oil representative Nouf Behbehani inaugurates the 12th International Conference on Occupational Safety, Health and Cybersecurity.

KUWAIT CITY, May 8: Minister of Oil representative at the 12th International Conference on Occupational Safety, Health and Cybersecurity and acting Director General of the Environment Public Authority (EPA) Nouf Behbehani has affirmed the commitment of the ministry to provide all the necessary facilities to industrialists as part of the expansion of craft and industrial enterprises supporting the oil sector. Speaking on the sidelines of the conference organized by the American Society of Occupational Safety and Health Professionals-Kuwait Branch on May 7-8, Behbehani pointed out that EPA Law No. 42/2014 and its amendment, Law No. 99/2015, require all parties to implement health and occupational regulations in newly established industrial facilities in order to obtain professional and preventative accreditation. She stressed that the authority is striving to facilitate the process of obtaining approvals and accreditation for facilities in accordance with the regulations, indicating EPA has adopted an open-door policy for all professionals and industrialists. She explained the accreditation for entities seeking to implement quality must take into account occupational health and preventive regulations, while emphasizing the need to provide awareness opportunities for the industrial and oil sectors and all sectors involved in hazardous work.

She praised the role of the conference organizers; considering this a crucial step in keeping up with developments in the fields of security, safety, and protection from fires and disasters. Moreover, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the American Society of Safety Professionals Fadel Al-Ali revealed the conference focused on the latest developments in health and safety technology and policies, procedures and changes “that make us more determined and committed to implement them.” He said the conference workshops included stakeholders from governmental and private entities; as well as specialists in health, safety and the environment, with the aim of improving performance and keeping pace with developments. He added the oil and industrial sectors are the most impacted by security and safety operations. “Therefore, the society focuses on these entities and their participation. The Ministry of Oil and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation are the sponsors of the conference. Challenges are ongoing; hence, the need for joint action to overcome them,” he stressed.

He urged all stakeholders in the oil, industrial and contracting industries to be updated on global requirements and policies, as well as utilize and implement best practices. He said the conference tackled more than 20 working papers, including research on regional and global security and safety issues. CEO of the American Society of Occupational Safety Professionals – Kuwait Branch Eng. Bader Al-Hadrami stated that artificial intelligence currently provides valuable opportunities to develop the occupational safety and health systems, including modern mechanisms that help implement requirements quickly. He added the 12th edition of the conference focuses on diverse experiences, with more than 200 participants, to achieve the greatest possible benefit for those who participate in the workshops and lectures. He stated that the most difficult challenge is cybersecurity, which has prompted the society to focus on it, based on emerging solutions. He said the discussions set specific standards for measuring the risk index in protection and developing optimal solutions.

Conference Director General Ahmed Ismail said that after 25 years of conference work, this year’s conference seeks to achieve the greatest possible success by discussing the latest developments in the field of health and safety, with the aim of producing the best recommendations that serve participants locally and regionally. He disclosed that the conference participants include ministries, government agencies, oil sector companies and the private sector — all of whom are interested in the fields of health, security, and safety. He added that the cost of implementing international safety standards is estimated at tens of millions of dollars annually, with the amount varying from one entity to another; depending on the region, entity and surrounding risks. He pointed out that spending on security and safety has increased over the past 10 years, given the heightened focus on these areas. Occupational Safety Consultant Mansour Fayez Al-Maghamsi explained that his participation in the exhibition stems from his membership in the American Society of Occupational Safety Professionals. He also presented a working paper on occupational safety and health management in petroleum refineries, as it is the main pillar for aircraft refueling and other industries. He said the society boasts of extensive expertise in cybersecurity and other areas needed by many sectors, in addition to providing members and others with the latest developments in the field of occupational health and safety.

By Najeh Bilal
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff