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OPEC+ aligns with Trump’s push for lower oil prices?!

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LAST week, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil output for this month and the next. This appears to be in support of the trend of lowering oil prices. Or perhaps it is a warning to member c o u n t r i e s that have been exceeding their agreed production quotas in violation of OPEC’s resolutions. Currently, oil prices are around $ 64 per barrel, a level few expected, and one for which there seems to be no real reason.

The increase in supply since last month, continuing into June, could be interpreted as a signal to non-compliant members: either adhere to production limits or risk driving prices down further, which will cause hurt to everyone. At $ 64 per barrel, everyone loses. Member countries will suffer financially and will be forced to turn to international banks for funding. While banks may be willing to lend, the terms and credit ratings will likely worsen, especially as uncertainty grows over how long oil prices will remain weak, given the abundant supply and the current U.S. administration’s strong push for domestic oil exploration and production in America.

OPEC, on the other hand, is currently producing around 30 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 200,000 barrels per day compared to last year. However, this rise in output comes with lower daily revenue due to weaker oil prices, offering little to no financial benefit for OPEC member countries. The root of the issue lies in the noncompliance of two to three member states, whose overproduction has led to huge financial losses for the organization and, more importantly, damaged its reputation as a disciplined and coherent organization.

Events in the coming weeks may provide more clarity on the future of the oil market, particularly with the anticipated visit of the leader of the world’s largest oil-producing country. His meetings with the heads of GCC countries could help stabilize the market, or potentially signal the beginning of a new oil order. For now, we await the outcomes and their effect on global oil prices. One thing is clear: the current level of $64 per barrel is unlikely to last. A rebound to around $70 by year-end seems more probable.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst

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Ethiopia inaugurates Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam as neighbors eye power imports

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A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia on Sept 9. (AP)

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, Sept 10, (AP): Ethiopia on Tuesday inaugurated Africa’s largest dam to boost the economy, end frequent blackouts and support the growth of electric vehicle development in a country that has banned the importation of gasoline-powered vehicles. As reservoir waters flowed into the turbines of the Grand Renaissance Dam, Ethiopians dressed in colorful regalia viewed the ceremony on large screens across the capital, Addis Ababa, and celebrated the achievement with dancing to traditional music.

“We will have enough power to charge our electric vehicles from the new dam,” said Belay Tigabu, a bus driver in Addis Ababa’s main bus terminal. The almost $5 billion mega-dam, located on the Blue Nile tributary of the Nile River near Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, will produce more than 5,000 megawatts and is expected to double national electricity generation capacity, according to officials. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, speaking during the launch, said the dam was a “big achievement” that would show the world what Africans are capable of accomplishing.

Dozens of visiting African heads of state and government joined Abiy for the inauguration, with many expressing interest in importing power from Ethiopia. “I am proud to announce we will soon be signing an agreement with the government of Ethiopia to receive electricity from the dam that will benefit our hospitals and schools,” said South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir. Kenyan President William Ruto said his nation is looking to sign a power purchasing agreement with Ethiopia based on the resources of the dam project, which he said was a “pan-African statement.”

Already an importer of Ethiopia electricity, Ruto said Kenya is seeking to alleviate the electricity deficit his country is experiencing. He said the dam “exemplifies the scale and ambition of African-led infrastructure and aligns with the Africa Union’s vision of continental energy connectivity.” But Ethiopia’s new dam has faced controversy, with neighboring Egypt expressing concerns over reduced water flows downstream.

Egypt has long opposed the dam because of concerns it would deplete its share of Nile waters. The Arab world’s most populous country relies almost entirely on the Nile to supply water for agriculture and its more than 100 million people. Tamim Khallaf, a spokesperson for Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The Associated Press that the dam posed an “existential threat.”  

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Asian shares mostly rise, cheered by Wall Street rally to more records

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A dealer stands near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), (left), and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea on Sept 10. (AP)

TOKYO, Sept 10, (AP): Asian shares mostly rose in early Wednesday trading, echoing record rallies on Wall Street after the latest update on the job market bolstered hopes the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% to finish at 43,837.67. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.3% to 8,830.40.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.7% to 3,314.66. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1% to 26,223.30, while the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.2% to 3,814.63. Uncertainty is still in the air over US-China tariff issues as bilateral talks continue. US President Donald Trump has raised taxes on imports from China, triggering a tit-for-tat tariff war.

The U.S. is currently charging an additional 30% tariff on Chinese goods and China is charging a 10% tariff under a de-escalation deal reached in May. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and squeaked past its all-time high set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 196 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.4%.

They likewise set records. Traders have become convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate for the first time this year at its next meeting in a week, in order to prop up the slowing job market. A report on Tuesday offered the latest signal of weakness, when the US government said its prior count of jobs across the country through March may have been too high by 911,000, or 0.6%.

That was before President Donald Trump shocked the economy and financial markets in April by rolling out tariffs on countries worldwide. The bet on Wall Street is that such data will convince Fed officials that the job market is the bigger problem now for the economy than the threat of inflation worsening because of Trump’s tariffs.

That would push them to cut interest rates, a move that would give the economy a boost but could also send inflation higher. A lot is riding on Wall Street’s hope that the job market is slowing by just the right amount: Investors have already sent US stock prices to records because of it. Inflation also needs to stay at a reasonable level, even though it looks tough to get below the Fed’s target of 2%. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.08% from 4.05% late Monday.

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Real estate transactions dip sharply in Kuwait

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KUWAIT CITY, Sept 9: The real estate market witnessed a significant decline in the number and value of transactions in the first week of September, compared to the same period last year, as well as the last week of August. This is a clear indication that the market has entered a period of relative calm and investment anticipation driven by seasonal factors and qualitative shifts in transactions, particularly commercial real estate, which accounted for about 60 percent of the total trading value during the week, compared to only three transactions. It reflects the interest of major institutions or entities in ‘heavy’ commercial transactions. The weekly report of the Real Estate Registration and Documentation Department at the Ministry of Justice for the period from Sept 1 to 3 showed that the number of real estate transactions was 62, with a total value of KD83.92 million.

These include 37 private transactions worth KD 13.5 million, 22 investment transactions worth KD 17.6 million, and three commercial transactions worth KD 52.8 million. Compared to the first week of September 2024, weekly trading recorded a decline of approximately 39 percent in the number of transactions, compared to a 16.8 percent increase in total value due to the completion of qualitative commercial deals. The number of transactions during that period reached 101, valued at KD 69.8 million, reflecting a quantitative decline versus a qualitative increase in transactions on an annual basis. Compared to trading during the fourth (and final) week of August 2025, the decline was more severe, with 139 transactions recorded, valued at KD 163.24 million.

This is a decline of approximately 55 percent in the number of transactions (77 transactions) and a 49 percent decrease in the value or KD 79.32 million. It is a clear indication that the market has entered a short-term slowdown after a remarkable wave of activity in August. Regarding private real estate transactions, they declined from 89 in the last week of August to just 37, a decrease of nearly 58 percent. The value also fell from KD 33.4 million to KD 13.5 million — by KD19.9 million, a decrease of nearly 60 percent. This indicates a decline in residential ownership activity due to travel or investors’ anticipation of market movements following the recent enactment of several real estate laws. Despite the decline in the number of investment transactions from 28 in August 2025 to 22 in September, the value of transactions increased to KD 17.6 million, compared to KD 15.3 million in August. It means continued demand for investment properties and the search for attractive, quality opportunities. As for commercial transactions, only three transactions were recorded this week, worth KD52.8 million or 60 percent of the total weekly trading value. It shows the execution of quality deals and investors’ focus on quality transactions and assets with long-term returns.

By Marwa Al-Bahrawi
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff

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