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OPEC+ production decisions raise oil market uncertainty

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WITH the upcoming meeting of OPEC+ next month in Vienna, oil markets are anxious about the group’s potential decision to raise production again. This has raised concerns about a further weakening of oil prices, which no one desires, but it is a sign that OPEC+ is worried about the lack of discipline among some of its members.

Nonadherence to agreed production limits is becoming a regular phenomenon. Currently, oil prices hover around $64 a barrel, significantly lower than the $70–$80 range needed to balance many OPEC members’ annual budgets. This has forced several member countries to seek loans from international banks to cover budget deficits. Most oil-producing countries require prices between $90 and over $100 per barrel in the coming years, unless they manage to suppress annual consumption, which is highly unlikely. Reducing electricity consumption must be carefully planned, especially given the current low electricity prices in Kuwait, where consumers pay only 2 fils per kilowatt-hour, while the government’s cost exceeds 10 fils.

This makes electricity one of the cheapest in the region. Despite calls to escalate prices based on individual consumption, which means the more you use, the higher your fair bill the demand remains high. During the summer months, it is necessary to increase oil production to meet electricity needs due to the lack of alternatives to oil. Otherwise, Kuwait would have to import gas, which is more expensive financially but cleaner, requires less maintenance, and is more environmentally friendly.

Until Kuwait discovers large gas reserves, which are still under exploration and have yet to be confirmed, oil will remain the primary energy source. Since the call by the U.S. president to reduce oil prices, this trend has continued, with OPEC+ increasing crude oil production to maintain its market share and prevent other producers from encroaching on it.

The solution for oil-producing countries is to find alternatives to oil, switch to other energy sources, and adapt to discoveries. We can borrow funds and collaborate with neighboring countries on joint energy projects. It is time to seriously consider options and explore alternatives. Oil will remain with us, but investing in cleaner, sustainable energy sources is the right move to stay ahead. We possess the financial resources and borrowing capacity to think proactively, invite international firms to partner with us, and help promote alternatives to oil.

Solar energy, for example, could be a promising alternative. We are a young nation with a youthful population and abundant financial resources, which can be invested in seeking and developing alternatives to oil. Relying solely on oil for income is no longer a sustainable strategy. We have the means and access to international expertise to explore these alternatives. Thinking ahead and planning for the future is neither a bad thing nor taboo, but it is a responsibility we owe to the next generation. We must build a new future with alternatives that have been serving us since 1946.

By Kamel Al-Harami

Independent Oil Analyst
 Email: naftikuwaiti@yahoo. com

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Indonesian president and Chinese premier meet to discuss expanding trade

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang, right, with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, inspects an honor guard during the welcoming ceremony ahead of their meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia on May 25. (AP)

JAKARTA, Indonesia, May 25, (AP): Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto on Sunday to discuss ways to expand trade and investment during the US global trade war and as economic globalization faces headwinds. Li arrived in Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, on Saturday afternoon for a three-day visit to Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

It was the first stop of his first overseas visit this year. Indonesia and China are member states of the Group of 20 major developing countries and emerging economies and of BRICS. Li brought 60 prominent Chinese businesspeople for his address to the Indonesia-China Business Reception on Saturday evening. He emphasized in his remarks that China’s economy has achieved rapid growth this year despite increasing external challenges.

“The current international situation is a stalemate,” Li said at the event, which was also attended by Subianto, “Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, bullying behavior is increasing.” Li noted this year marks the 70th anniversary of the conception of the Non-Aligned Movement by Asian and African countries in Indonesia’s Bandung city when the world was at a historical crossroads.

The Bandung spirit of solidarity, friendship and cooperation has played a pivotal role in the unity and cooperation of the Global South countries, Li said. “More than seven decades later, the world is once again at an important crossroads,” Li said. He called on all countries to seek common ground while resolving differences through dialogue and peaceful coexistence.

Subianto expressed gratitude to the Chinese government and its companies “that have participated in our economy, created jobs, transferred technology and built trust among all businesses, especially in our homeland.” He also invited Chinese businesspeople to invest more in Indonesia. Two-way trade exceeded US$147.8 billion last year, growing by 6.1%.  

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ASEAN must deepen integration and stay united to tackle US tariffs, Malaysia says

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ASEAN Foreign Ministers line up for a photo call at the start of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting opening ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on May 25. They are from left to right, Lao Foreign Minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane, Myanmar Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Aung Kyaw Moe, Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Thailand’s Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa, Vietnam’s Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan, Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo, Bruneian Foreign Minister Erywan Pehin Yusof, Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono, East Timor’s Foreign Minister Bendito Freitas, and ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn. (AP)

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, May 25, (AP): Southeast Asian nations must accelerate regional economic integration, diversify their markets and stay united to tackle the fallout from global trade disruptions resulting from sweeping US tariff hikes, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said Sunday. Mohamad, opening a meeting of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, also reiterated the bloc’s call to warring parties in Myanmar to cease hostilities in a deadly civil war that has killed thousands and displaced millions of people since a 2021 government takeover by the military.

“ASEAN nations are among those most heavily affected by the US-imposed tariffs. The US-China trade war is dramatically disrupting production and trade patterns worldwide. A global economic slowdown is likely to happen,” Mohamad said. “We must seize this moment to deepen regional economic integration, so that we can better shield our region from external shocks.”

ASEAN countries, many of which rely on exports to the US, are reeling from tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration ranging from 10% to 49%. Six of the association’s 10 member nations were among the worst-hit with tarrifs ranging from 32% to 49%. This would likely affect ASEAN’s targeted growth forecast of 4.7% this year, trade officials said.

ASEAN has not been able to secure a meeting with the U.S. as a bloc. But when US President Donald Trump last month announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs, countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam swiftly began trade negotiations with Washington. The meeting of foreign ministers preceded a planned ASEAN leaders’ summit Monday in Malaysia, the bloc’s current chair. In a bid to bolster economic partnerships, ASEAN leaders also are scheduled to hold a joint summit Tuesday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

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Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU and 25% penalties on smart phones

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President Donald Trump boards Air Force One to depart Joint Base Andrews, Md on May 23. (AP)

 WASHINGTON, May 24, (AP): US President Donald Trump on Friday threatened a 50% tax on all imports from the European Union as well a 25% tariff on smartphones unless those products are made in America. The threats, delivered over social media, reflect Trump’s ability to disrupt the global economy with a burst of typing, as well as the reality that his tariffs have yet to produce the trade deals he is seeking or the return of domestic manufacturing he has promised voters.

The Republican president said he wants to charge higher import taxes on goods from the EU, a longstanding US ally, than from China, a geopolitical rival that had its tariffs cut to 30% this month so Washington and Beijing could hold negotiations. Trump was upset by the lack of progress in trade talks with the EU, which has proposed mutually cutting tariffs to zero even as the president has publicly insisted on preserving a baseline 10% tax on most imports.

“Our discussions with them are going nowhere!” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States.” Speaking later in the Oval Office, Trump stressed that he was not seeking a deal with the EU and might delay the tariffs if more companies invested in the United States. “I’m not looking for a deal,” Trump told the reporters. “We’ve set the deal. It’s at 50%.”

The EU’s top trade official, Maros Sefcovic, posted on the social media site X that he spoke Friday with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “The EU’s fully engaged, committed to securing a deal that works for both,” Sefcovic said. “EU-US trade is unmatched & must be guided by mutual respect, not threats. We stand ready to defend our interests.” Trump’s tariffs against Europe had been preceded by a threat of import taxes against Apple for its plans to continue making its iPhone in Asia.

Apple now joins Amazon, Walmart and other major U.S. companies in the White House’s crosshairs as they try to respond to the uncertainty and inflationary pressures unleashed by his tariffs. “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump wrote. “If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.”  

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