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Trump and Putin hint at US-Russia trade revival, but business environment remains hostile

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Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with members of Russia’s business community at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia on May 26. (AP)

WASHINGTON, May 31, (AP): Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including major US firms like Coca-Cola, Nike, Starbucks, ExxonMobil and Ford Motor Co. But after more than three years of war, President Donald Trump has held out the prospect of restoring U.S.-Russia trade if there’s ever a peace settlement.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin has said foreign companies could come back under some circumstances. “Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump said in a statement after a phone call with Putin. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

The president then shifted his tone toward Putin after heavy drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, saying Putin “has gone absolutely crazy” and threatening new sanctions. That and recent comments from Putin warning Western companies against reclaiming their former stakes seemed to reflect reality more accurately – that it’s not going to be a smooth process for businesses going back into Russia.

That’s because Russia’s business environment has massively changed since 2022. And not in ways that favor foreign companies. And with Putin escalating attacks and holding on to territory demands Ukraine likely isn’t going to accept, a peace deal seems distant indeed. Here are factors that could deter US companies from ever going back: Russian law classifies Ukraine’s allies as “unfriendly states” and imposes severe restrictions on businesses from more than 50 countries.

Those include limits on withdrawing money and equipment as well as allowing the Russian government to take control of companies deemed important. Foreign owners’ votes on boards of directors can be legally disregarded. Companies that left were required to sell their businesses for 50% or less of their assessed worth, or simply wrote them off while Kremlin-friendly business groups snapped up their assets on the cheap. 

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Bulgaria close to joining euro currency but faces disinformation and fear

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Red paint from pro-Russian protests remain visible on the European Parliament and European Commission building in Sofia, Bulgaria on June 2. (AP)

SOFIA, Bulgaria, June 3, (AP): Bulgaria is close to realizing its decades-old goal of joining the euro currency union and deepening ties with the more prosperous countries of Western Europe. But the government faces a populist backlash against the shared currency on the eve of a key decision by European Union authorities.

Fears of inflation, poverty and the unknown are mingling with disinformation spread on social media that aims to turn people against the euro. The discontent tracks with increased support for populist and anti-EU parties across Europe, which is exploited by nationalist and pro-Russian politicians in a country that remains one of Europe’s poorest and most afflicted with corruption.

“Adopting the euro will make us feel the threshold of poverty. After all, prices will be in euros,” said 78-year-old retiree Tanya Ignatova. “Bulgaria is not ready for the euro. Someday we may be ready, but not now,” said another retiree, Mario Georgiev. Several thousand people rallied against the euro in the capital on Saturday, urging a referendum on whether to transition from the lev currency to the euro.

The head of the pro-Russian Varazhdane party, Kostadin Kostadinov, told the crowd that “Bulgaria has risen and declared: Freedom, we choose the Bulgarian lev!” Others in Bulgaria say the country already benefits from EU membership and it does not matter what the currency is. “We have inflation now and we will have it in the future,” said 26-year-old Konstantin Bozhinov.

Aiming at deepening European integration amid growing geopolitical tensions, the government is pressing ahead. It has asked for a review of whether it meets the requirements of low inflation, sound government finances and legal conformity to EU institutions. On Wednesday, the European Commission will announce the results. If the commission gives a green light, other member states will decide on Bulgaria’s candidacy in the coming weeks.

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World shares are mostly higher after modest gains put Wall St close to records

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A person stands in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan’s Nikkei index at a securities firm on June 3, in Tokyo. (AP)

WASHINGTON, June 3, (AP): Shares were mostly higher Tuesday in Asia after US stock indexes drifted closer to records, while oil prices extended gains. The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%. Markets in China advanced despite a report showing manufacturing activity slowed in May, even after China and the US paused tariff hikes to allow time for talks. In early European trading, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.3% to 23,996.47, while the CAC 40 in Paris edged 0.2% higher to 7,747.72.

Britain’s FTSE 100 was up less than 0.1% at 8,779.65. Adding to uncertainty in a region already enduring war in Ukraine, Poland elected Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and staunch nationalist, as its next president in a closely watched vote that signaled a resurgence of right-wing populism in the heart of Europe.

Nawrocki has voiced support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, but does not back Ukrainian membership in NATO and has questioned the long-term costs of aid – particularly support for refugees. The survey of Chinese purchasing managers, or PMI, by the financial media group Caixin showed factory output, new export orders, purchasing activity and staffing all declined last month.

Incoming new work contracted at the quickest pace in over two-and-a-half years. the report said. The situation is “a body blow to the backbone of China’s economy: small and mid-sized exporters now caught in a brutal vice grip between faltering global demand and a Washington-led tariff regime that’s more carrot-and-stick diplomacy than ceasefire,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary. However, as is often the case, investors shrugged off the bad news with the assumption that it might raise the likelihood of more market support from Beijing.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.5% to 23,501.55, while the Shanghai Composite index rose 0.4% to 3,361.98. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% lower to 37,446.81. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.6% to 8,466.70. In Taiwan, the Taiex gained 0.6%, while India’s Sensex lost 0.5%. Beijing and Washington dialed back trade friction slightly as the US extended exemptions for tariffs on some Chinese goods, including solar manufacturing equipment, that US industries rely on for their own production.   

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Reconnaissance Research welcomes French economist Maxime Izoulet

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KUWAIT CITY, June 2: Reconnaissance Research is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr. Maxime Izoulet, a distinguished French economist, to its Economic Affairs Unit. He will contribute to the center’s strategic output through in-depth analytical papers and global economic assessments, with a focus on structural dynamics shaping international relations. Dr. Izoulet holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the prestigious EHESS in Paris, where he studied under prominent economists such as Jacques Sapir and Alberto Bagnai. His doctoral work explored the accounting theory of money and finance, and his research has been published in several internationally peer-reviewed journals indexed by France’s National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). Dr. Izoulet commented on his appointment: “I believe institutions like Reconnaissance Research play a vital role in offering a rare space for serious thought. I am honored to contribute to its independence, regional insight, commitment to strategic clarity, and to engage with a team that values long-term analysis over short-term noise.” He marks the beginning of his tenure at Reconnaissance Research with the release of a timely and insightful paper titled:“At the Heart of Sino-American Relations: The Over-Financialisation of the American Economy.”

The paper argues that the United States’ disproportionate reliance on financial markets, at the expense of its productive base, is at the core of the emerging asymmetry with China. Dr. Izoulet examines how this economic over-financialisation weakens U.S. domestic capacity, amplifies global instability, and shapes the Trump administration’s strategic posture towards trade, tariffs, and international alignment. His analysis offers a compelling framework for understanding the contradictions between America’s global economic influence and its internal industrial erosion. Founder and CEO of Reconnaissance Research, Abdulaziz Al-Anjeri, said: “We are confident that Dr. Izoulet’s expertise will strengthen our mission to provide high-impact economic insights to policymakers and global stakeholders operating at the intersection of economics, strategy, and geopolitics.”, he added: “His joining also refl ects our commitment to making Reconnaissance a platform for intellectual rigor, and meaningful exchange – bridging Kuwait with global expertise and reaffirming our belief in the value of serious, independent knowledge.”

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