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Mideast stock markets tumble as US tariffs and low oil prices squeeze energy-producing nations

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Emiratis are seen in the Dubai Financial Market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Monday, April 7, 2025. (AP)

 DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, April 7, (AP): Middle East stock markets tumbled Monday as they struggled with the dual hit of the United States’ new tariff policy and a sharp decline in oil prices, squeezing energy-producing nations that rely on those sales to power their economies and government spending.

Benchmark Brent crude is down by nearly 15% over the last five days of trading, with a barrel of oil costing just over $64. That’s down nearly 30% from a year ago when a barrel cost over $90. That cost per barrel is far lower than the estimated break-even price for Saudi Arabia and most other countries producing energy in the Middle East.

That’s coupled with the new tariffs, which saw the Gulf Cooperation Council states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hit with 10% tariffs. Other Middle Eastern nations face higher tariffs, like Iraq at 39% and Syria at 41%.

“With these measures and the expected retaliatory measures that could be adopted by other countries, the stability and predictability of international trade could be undermined,” the accounting firm PwC said in an advisory to its Mideast clients.

The Dubai Financial Market exchange fell 6% after it opened for the week, though it clawed back some losses to close at 3% down. Market leader Emaar Properties, down at one point by 9%, closed down 2.5%.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange fell as much as 4% before closing down 2.5%. Markets that opened Sunday saw losses as well.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange fell over 6% in trading then, though it closed Monday up 1%. The giant of the exchange, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, fell over 5% on its own on Sunday, wiping away billions in market capitalization for the world’s sixth-most-valuable company. It closed up 1.5% Monday.

The drop in Aramco, whose shares also power Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s expansive plans to reshape the kingdom’s economy, ties directly back to the overall price of oil.

Last week, OPEC+ members Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to speed up the introduction of more oil into the market.

This month marks the first oil production increase by the group since 2022. “OPEC+ has shifted its market management strategy from a steady incremental increase in output to monthly announced targets, bringing forward higher output levels for May this year,” an analysis published Monday by the state-majority-owned Emirates NBD Bank of Dubai said.

“That will leave oil markets grasping with additional volatility as they assess the negative impact on global trade of the tariffs announced by the Trump administration.”

James Swanston, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Capital Economics, warned Gulf countries likely face “a tough 2025.” “Against this backdrop, governments will almost certainly be forced to scale back fiscal support and, in the likes of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman, turn to outright austerity measures through spending cuts and potentially raising non-oil revenues via taxation,” Swanston wrote.

The Qatar Stock Exchange fell over 4% Sunday and slightly down as trading resumed Monday. Boursa Kuwait fell over 5% on Sunday, with slight losses again Monday. The Pakistan Stock Exchange fell rapidly Monday, with Islamabad facing 29% tariffs from the U.S.

The exchange suspended trading for an hour after a 5% drop in its main KSE-30 index, before closing down 3.3% overall. “We may face this situation until the uncertainty ends at the global market,” said Mohammed Sohail, the chief executive at Topline Securities.

Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said over the weekend that Islamabad will send a delegation to the United States soon to negotiate. The U.S. imports around $5 billion worth of textiles and other products from Pakistan, which heavily relies on loans from the International Monetary Fund and others.   

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Guyana poised for energy boom amid legal dispute

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 TWO of the biggest American oil companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron, are locked in a legal battle over an oilfield in Guyana. Both companies are industry giants and pioneers with a presence in oil fields worldwide. They have their hands in every oil field, regardless of location. Oil is their bread and butter. They are the biggest in the field with unmatched expertise. Today, however, they find themselves in a legal battle in a London court over the ownership of a massive oil project, estimated to hold over$1 trillion in reserves. The outcome of this case carries huge implications for the global oil industry. The two U.S. oil supermajors are battling over a 30 percent stake in a major oil field in Guyana, which is currently owned by Hess Corporation, a U.S. energy company that agreed to a $54 billion takeover by Chevron in 2023.

ExxonMobil, which already owns approximately 45 percent of the same field, claims it holds a “first right of refusal” under its existing agreement. This is likely to be a long legal battle over a valuable oil reserve, which is what every oil company wants. The fight between the world’s two biggest oil firms could shape the future of the industry. Whoever wins will strengthen their position in the global market. For ExxonMobil, the most valuable American oil company, winning could help it stay on top. The two oil companies are no match for national oil companies in terms of oil reserves, nor do they possess as much oil as those state-owned companies.

However, they do have the know-how, the experience, and the technology to operate in almost any oil field in the world. They are always in desperate need of more oil reserves and will go anywhere, to any place, in search of a few barrels of black gold. It is their bread and butter. For Guyana, with its small population and clean environment, there is no real need for the polluting effects of black oil to disrupt its natural surroundings. However, the financial rewards are too great to ignore, offering the country a chance to place itself on the global energy map. With oil reserves exceeding 12 billion barrels, and more expansion on the horizon, Guyana stands to gain immensely. The current legal battle between the two oil giants is over a prize worth more than $1 trillion. In the end, Chevron has more at stake and a greater need to win, as it aims to boost its oil reserves to better compete with the world’s leading oil company, ExxonMobil. It is a matter of competition and narrowing the gap with its top rival. Without a doubt, this is a case well worth fighting for.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst
Email: [email protected]

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The Central Bank of Kuwait supplies banks with new banknotes for Eid Al-Adha

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The Central Bank of Kuwait supplies banks with new banknotes for Eid Al-Adha

The Central Bank of Kuwait

KUWAIT CITY, June 1: The Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) announced on Saturday that it has completed the distribution of new Kuwaiti banknotes in various denominations to all local banks, ensuring sufficient supply to meet public demand ahead of Eid Al-Adha.

In a press statement, the CBK invited customers wishing to obtain new banknotes to visit their respective bank branches during official working hours.

The statement added that Kuwaiti banks will announce the locations of designated branches offering the “Ayadi” cashing service, as well as other available methods for customers to receive new banknotes.

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Trump and Putin hint at US-Russia trade revival, but business environment remains hostile

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Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with members of Russia’s business community at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia on May 26. (AP)

WASHINGTON, May 31, (AP): Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including major US firms like Coca-Cola, Nike, Starbucks, ExxonMobil and Ford Motor Co. But after more than three years of war, President Donald Trump has held out the prospect of restoring U.S.-Russia trade if there’s ever a peace settlement.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin has said foreign companies could come back under some circumstances. “Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump said in a statement after a phone call with Putin. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

The president then shifted his tone toward Putin after heavy drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, saying Putin “has gone absolutely crazy” and threatening new sanctions. That and recent comments from Putin warning Western companies against reclaiming their former stakes seemed to reflect reality more accurately – that it’s not going to be a smooth process for businesses going back into Russia.

That’s because Russia’s business environment has massively changed since 2022. And not in ways that favor foreign companies. And with Putin escalating attacks and holding on to territory demands Ukraine likely isn’t going to accept, a peace deal seems distant indeed. Here are factors that could deter US companies from ever going back: Russian law classifies Ukraine’s allies as “unfriendly states” and imposes severe restrictions on businesses from more than 50 countries.

Those include limits on withdrawing money and equipment as well as allowing the Russian government to take control of companies deemed important. Foreign owners’ votes on boards of directors can be legally disregarded. Companies that left were required to sell their businesses for 50% or less of their assessed worth, or simply wrote them off while Kremlin-friendly business groups snapped up their assets on the cheap. 

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