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Fitch affirms Kuwait at ‘AA-‘ with stable outlook: CBK

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Fitch affirms Kuwait at 'AA-' with stable outlook: CBK

The Cental Bank of Kuwait

KUWAIT CITY, Sept 6: Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Kuwait’s long‑term foreign‑currency issuer default rating at “AA‑” with a stable outlook, the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) said in a statement on Friday.

Fitch highlighted Kuwait’s exceptionally strong fiscal and external balance sheets as key rating supports, but noted constraints such as governance challenges, heavy reliance on oil, and the burdens of a generous welfare system and large public sector—factors that may exert long-term fiscal pressure despite efforts at spending rationalization.

Fitch forecast Kuwait’s sovereign net foreign assets will rise to approximately 607% of GDP in 2025, up from an estimated 576% in 2024—more than ten times the ‘AA’ median. These assets are primarily held in the Future Generations Fund, managed by the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), which also oversees the General Reserve Fund (GRF), the government’s treasury account.

On reform, Fitch noted that Kuwait has resumed efforts that were previously stalled—approving a new financing and liquidity law that allows debt issuance for the first time since 2017. The law envisages raising KD 30 billion (approximately USD 100 billion)—equivalent to about 60% of GDP—over the next 50 years. This move aims to ease pressure on the GRF, develop local capital markets, establish a benchmark yield curve, and fund development projects.

Despite improvements, Fitch projected fiscal shifts:

  • A surplus of 10% of GDP in FY2025, up from 8.9% in FY2024.
  • A budget deficit of 5.6% of GDP in FY2025, widening from 2% in FY2024—higher than the projected ‘AA’ median of 2.6%.
  • Expenditure is seen rising to support delayed capital projects but staying under 51% of GDP.
  • Oil revenue is expected to decline due to lower prices, though easing OPEC+ production quotas from Q2 2025 may counterbalance declines.
  • Around 70% of the deficit is projected to be financed through domestic and external borrowing, with the remainder covered using GRF assets.

Government debt/GDP is forecast to climb from 2.9% in FY2024 to nearly 12% by FY2027, but still remain well below the projected AA median of 52.4%.

The agency also forecast that real GDP growth will resume at 1.7% in 2025, following two years of contraction due to OPEC+ production cuts. Inflation is expected to stay below 3% during 2025–2027, though the central bank may tread cautiously on rate cuts amid rising geopolitical risks.

Fitch noted that regional conflicts and disruptions to Red Sea shipping have had minimal impact on Kuwait, owing to its sizeable sovereign assets that buffer the economy against external shocks. Nonetheless, the country’s dependence on hydrocarbons remains a key vulnerability, making its fiscal outcomes highly sensitive to movements in oil prices.

On governance, Kuwait received an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of “5[+]” for Political Stability, Rights and Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality, and Control of Corruption. These scores, reflecting above-50th percentile rankings on World Bank Governance Indicators, strengthen Kuwait’s credit profile under Fitch’s sovereign rating model.

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Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers

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The headquarters of Bank of Japan is seen in Tokyo on Jan 23, 2024. (AP)

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.

The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.

The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.

However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.

“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.

But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.

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Kuwaiti investments in Türkiye surpass $2 billion

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Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees

KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.

Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.

By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies

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Mexico urges US ‘consideration’ over new vehicle tariffs

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Mexico urges US 'consideration' over new vehicle tariffs

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)

MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum. 

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