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The emergence of a new economic alliance

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THE SCO Summit in Tianjin, China, last week signaled the emergence of a new economic power bloc, an alliance consisting of major economies rich in petroleum, ga,s and minerals, with the largest populated nations. Certainly, this is leading towards the rise of powerful nations. It could threaten the position of the United States in the global market, potentially toppling its economic status.

The meeting of the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, and Iran, in addition to the South American countries Brazil and Argentina, signals the birth of a new global power bloc, while other countries are standing by to join the new alliance. With the wealth of minerals, oil and gold, it can become a balancing global force. As we imagine such an alliance, it is calling for a one-day cut of oil supply to the world. These countries can surpass OPEC’s total crude oil production, as well as its oil and gas reserves. Perhaps, they have yet to realize their power. 
However, it will emerge to tilt the balance away from the USA. Perhaps, this is neither the idea nor the purpose, but it could be used as a ‘standby’ one. From the point of view of OPEC, the new alliance of China, India, and Brazil represents the most important nations importing crude oil and petroleum products from the Arab Gulf countries and other members of OPEC. They also represent future growth and demand for oil. At the same time, they represent future economic growth and the place of current and future investments. We, in Kuwait, are in the right place to invest. It is an emerging market. Kuwait can grow with it in terms of financial investments and lessons to be learned.

Now is the right time and it is the right long-term investment. This is why Kuwait’s oil industry is encouraged to build and invest in refining, similar to what Saudi Aramco is doing. It is the second-largest consumer of oil, with almost 16 million barrels, covering about 25 percent of total demand, second to the USA with about 20 million. While the third-largest consumer of oil is India, with six million, short by more than 10 million barrels per day. The USA is almost steady with 10 million barrels per day. It is trying its best to remain closed to imports, but so far, it is failing to do so. Nonetheless, it is open to imports from all the relevant countries, without exception. Hence, it is the role of OPEC and its partners to push for more crude oil exploration and to dig for oil. The demand is there, and the alternative has yet to appear as a replacement. Luckily for oil-producing countries, the alternative is not yet with us. Fortunately for us in Kuwait and our neighboring oil producers, this is expected to happen sometime in the near future.

In Kuwait, are we ready for that future? It may be saddening, but it is vital to know about it and to be prepared. The choices are not many, but perhaps it is good to invest and collaborate with major international consultants to find and search for options. With the current number of investments globally, alternatives might be found. The search for an alternative to oil is a challenge and a struggle, as others are doing the same. The good news is that Kuwait is investing in the emerging markets and the new power of the future. As long as we invest in emerging markets, we are in safe hands and part of it.

Diversification and searching for ways and means to increase our returns on investments is the only way to plan for the era after oil. We have to continue to find and discover new emerging markets, as the current ones might have matured. With the possibility that oil is not lasting, we must be well prepared.

By Kamel Al-Harami
 Independent Oil Analyst

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Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers

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The headquarters of Bank of Japan is seen in Tokyo on Jan 23, 2024. (AP)

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.

The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.

The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.

However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.

“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.

But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.

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Kuwaiti investments in Türkiye surpass $2 billion

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Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees

KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.

Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.

By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies

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Mexico urges US ‘consideration’ over new vehicle tariffs

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Mexico urges US 'consideration' over new vehicle tariffs

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)

MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum. 

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