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Can OPEC+ add more oil to the market, or has it reached its production capacity limit?

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According to oil analysts, the organization appears to have hit its production limit, as it has consistently failed to meet its targets. Despite Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, joining OPEC+, the group still falls short by more than 500,000 barrels per day. The so-called oil glut has not materialized, with prices remaining below $70 a barrel, despite OPEC+’s inability to increase output.

Among OPEC members, only Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi have the capacity to boost production, but no additional barrels have been added. This raises concerns about keeping the oil market tight. If these two countries have spare capacity, why aren’t they producing more? Could this be an attempt to keep oil prices firm in the hope of further price increases per barrel? Has the world reached its limit on oil production? If so, why are oil prices still under $70 in international markets? Since April 2023, following an agreement to cut output and support prices, OPEC+ has gradually increased production. There still appears to be around 3.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, mainly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, this idle capacity remains unused, likely to maintain price stability and prevent further declines. However, when will OPEC+ ask its members, mainly Iraq and Kazakhstan, to increase oil supply to the market, or will they wait for a stronger, more sustained rise in oil prices? Another consideration is whether the organization will wait for clearer signs of a tightening oil market before agreeing to push more volumes into the market, aiming to avoid further price weakness.


OPEC+ seeks to maintain order in the oil markets under its umbrella, ideally with full participation and commitment from all members in line with its agreements and responsibilities to the international oil market. OPEC+ plans to increase production starting next month, October, by adding an additional 137,000 barrels per day. However, oil analysts doubt that the full volume will reach the market, estimating the actual increase closer to 80,000 barrels per day, as the group is likely to fall short of the agreed target of 137,000 barrels.

The main concern is whether OPEC+ will have spare oil capacity exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day by next year. The question is whether oil producers will choose to increase production in search of more oil or hold back to keep the market uncertain and firm up prices. The American experience is notable, as the U.S. has quietly ramped up crude oil production to nearly 13.6 million barrels per day, making it the world’s top producer. This aggressive output aims to protect their oil market, maintain energy independence, and reduce imports. However, this goal remains unmet, as U.S. crude oil demand exceeds 20 million barrels per day, while production is around 13.5 million barrels per day. This leaves a gap of about 6 to 7 million barrels per day that must be imported from various parts of the world. Although the U.S. market is not the most lucrative for producers, it offers some of the lowest prices compared to global markets. As the largest consumer, the U.S. still represents an important outlet for oil sales, especially when other markets may be limited. The question is whether OPEC can add more crude oil to the market. Perhaps it can and will. The main issue is whether the netback, or the selling price, is attractive enough to sell to the U.S., or if the U.S. market is used as a last-resort outlet, accepting lower income but still generating some cash in the absence of more rewarding markets. The U.S. oil market is massive, and it is worth being a player in such a large outlet, if only for the record, despite prices being $4–$5 per barrel lower than other crude benchmarks. Can OPEC+ produce more oil? The answer is yes, it can and likely will. The real question is at what price level, and whether additional production is driven by the need to generate cash to balance annual budgets, especially in the absence of new alternatives.

By Kamel Al-Harami
Independent Oil Analyst
Email: [email protected]

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Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers

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TKMY201

The headquarters of Bank of Japan is seen in Tokyo on Jan 23, 2024. (AP)

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.

The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.

The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.

However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.

“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.

But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.

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Kuwaiti investments in Türkiye surpass $2 billion

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Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees

KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.

Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.

By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies

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Mexico urges US ‘consideration’ over new vehicle tariffs

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Mexico urges US 'consideration' over new vehicle tariffs

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)

MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum. 

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