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Oil prices crash as Iran blinks

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NEW YORK, June 24, (AP): If oil prices are any measure, Iran just flinched. The price of oil tumbled Monday afternoon in an historical move as traders bet that Iran’s decision to bomb a U.S. base in Qatar signaled it was not planning to do the one thing that could really hurt America: Shut down the flow of oil by attacking crude shipments. “When the response comes and it is muted, oil drops,” said Tom Kloza, chief market strategist at consultancy Turner Mason & Co, calling the limited Iran response far short of what many traders feared.

“This rivals some of the historic selloffs.” There’s still plenty Iran could do to push prices back up, and the markets could be getting it all wrong, But oil analysts say there are plenty of reasons fear has receded. Adding to the odds that prices will settle, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a complete ceasefire, though the situation remained unclear. The price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fell 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel in regular trading on Monday after Iran announced a missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which the U.S. military uses. Traders were relieved because Iran said it had matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear sites this weekend, a possible sign of a desire to de-escalate the conflict. The price of oil fell further after Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” to be phased in over 24 hours. Oil fell almost 4% to $65.84 a barrel early Tuesday, and is now below where it was before fighting between Iran and Israel began over a week ago, when a barrel of U.S. crude was just above $68. Markets were initially nervous Sunday as oil futures opened for trading.

The price of Brent crude, the international standard, had jumped 4% as traders anxiously watched the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern border that legislators in Tehran were demanding be closed in retaliation. That would have walloped the global economy because much of world’s crude and liquified gas passes through it. Brent crude was trading at $68.06 per barrel, down 3.5%, early Tuesday. That’s good news for Trump, who wants the Federal Reserve to stop worrying about inflation and start cutting interest rates. It’s also good for motorists this summer if the trend holds. Drivers were already paying higher prices at the pump before the U.S. attack. The average price nationwide is $3.18 per gallon, according to GasBuddy surveys, about 10 cents more than two weeks ago. Some traders doubted Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz even before its limited attack Monday. Much of country’s own crude passes through the waterway – 1.5 million barrels a day – and oil is a big revenue generator for the country that they would be loath to disrupt. “It’s a silly notion that the Iranians would look to do that,” said Kloza. “I’ve been covering oil for 50 years and we’ve never seen the Strait of Hormuz compromised.” Asked about the prospect of a shutdown on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday, Vice President J.D. Vance put it more simply: “I think that would be suicidal.” At current oil prices, Tehran receives roughly $40 billion in revenue annually from oil transiting the same waters. That is a tenth of what the entire of country produces in goods and services.

Andy Lipow, an Houston based oil analyst, says history suggests Iran won’t disrupt its own flow of oil, but that countries, like people, don’t always act in their economic interests. “The question for the oil markets is, ‘Is his time different?’,” he said. “You might have an emotional decision.” He notes also that Iran has other ways to push oil higher without completely closing off the waterway. Iran could jam navigational devices, slowing transit, or drop mines in the water, forcing the U.S. Navy to do more escorts. Or it could bomb a tanker, he said, sending the premiums that shippers need to pay insurers sky high. If traders are wrong and oil shoots back up, the impact could be widely felt. A surge in oil prices would come at a bad time. Trump insists that the inflation scare is largely over, but many economists think higher prices are still coming because the full impact of his tariffs are only now beginning to show up on everyday goods. Trump is clearly aware things could change fast. “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” he wrote on Truth Social Monday, adding. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”

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Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers

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The headquarters of Bank of Japan is seen in Tokyo on Jan 23, 2024. (AP)

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.

The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.

The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.

However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.

“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.

But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.

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Kuwaiti investments in Türkiye surpass $2 billion

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Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees

KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.

Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.

By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies

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Mexico urges US ‘consideration’ over new vehicle tariffs

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Mexico urges US 'consideration' over new vehicle tariffs

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)

MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum. 

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