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Oil prices crash as Iran blinks

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NEW YORK, June 24, (AP): If oil prices are any measure, Iran just flinched. The price of oil tumbled Monday afternoon in an historical move as traders bet that Iran’s decision to bomb a U.S. base in Qatar signaled it was not planning to do the one thing that could really hurt America: Shut down the flow of oil by attacking crude shipments. “When the response comes and it is muted, oil drops,” said Tom Kloza, chief market strategist at consultancy Turner Mason & Co, calling the limited Iran response far short of what many traders feared.

“This rivals some of the historic selloffs.” There’s still plenty Iran could do to push prices back up, and the markets could be getting it all wrong, But oil analysts say there are plenty of reasons fear has receded. Adding to the odds that prices will settle, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a complete ceasefire, though the situation remained unclear. The price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fell 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel in regular trading on Monday after Iran announced a missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which the U.S. military uses. Traders were relieved because Iran said it had matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear sites this weekend, a possible sign of a desire to de-escalate the conflict. The price of oil fell further after Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” to be phased in over 24 hours. Oil fell almost 4% to $65.84 a barrel early Tuesday, and is now below where it was before fighting between Iran and Israel began over a week ago, when a barrel of U.S. crude was just above $68. Markets were initially nervous Sunday as oil futures opened for trading.

The price of Brent crude, the international standard, had jumped 4% as traders anxiously watched the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern border that legislators in Tehran were demanding be closed in retaliation. That would have walloped the global economy because much of world’s crude and liquified gas passes through it. Brent crude was trading at $68.06 per barrel, down 3.5%, early Tuesday. That’s good news for Trump, who wants the Federal Reserve to stop worrying about inflation and start cutting interest rates. It’s also good for motorists this summer if the trend holds. Drivers were already paying higher prices at the pump before the U.S. attack. The average price nationwide is $3.18 per gallon, according to GasBuddy surveys, about 10 cents more than two weeks ago. Some traders doubted Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz even before its limited attack Monday. Much of country’s own crude passes through the waterway – 1.5 million barrels a day – and oil is a big revenue generator for the country that they would be loath to disrupt. “It’s a silly notion that the Iranians would look to do that,” said Kloza. “I’ve been covering oil for 50 years and we’ve never seen the Strait of Hormuz compromised.” Asked about the prospect of a shutdown on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday, Vice President J.D. Vance put it more simply: “I think that would be suicidal.” At current oil prices, Tehran receives roughly $40 billion in revenue annually from oil transiting the same waters. That is a tenth of what the entire of country produces in goods and services.

Andy Lipow, an Houston based oil analyst, says history suggests Iran won’t disrupt its own flow of oil, but that countries, like people, don’t always act in their economic interests. “The question for the oil markets is, ‘Is his time different?’,” he said. “You might have an emotional decision.” He notes also that Iran has other ways to push oil higher without completely closing off the waterway. Iran could jam navigational devices, slowing transit, or drop mines in the water, forcing the U.S. Navy to do more escorts. Or it could bomb a tanker, he said, sending the premiums that shippers need to pay insurers sky high. If traders are wrong and oil shoots back up, the impact could be widely felt. A surge in oil prices would come at a bad time. Trump insists that the inflation scare is largely over, but many economists think higher prices are still coming because the full impact of his tariffs are only now beginning to show up on everyday goods. Trump is clearly aware things could change fast. “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” he wrote on Truth Social Monday, adding. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”

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Kuwaiti Oil Minister: Strong OPEC+ coordination crucial for global energy stability

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Kuwaiti Oil Minister: Strong OPEC+ coordination crucial for global energy stability

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tareq Al-Roumi

KUWAIT CITY, Oct 2: Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tareq Al-Roumi on Wednesday emphasized the critical importance of continuous coordination among OPEC+ member countries to maintain stability in global oil markets and balance supply with demand, noting encouraging signs of recovery in market fundamentals and the global economy.

Al-Roumi’s remarks followed the 62nd meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which he chaired virtually. The committee reviewed crude oil production data for July and August, praised high levels of compliance among members, and called on all participating countries to fully adhere to compensation mechanisms designed to preserve market equilibrium.

The Kuwaiti delegation included Kuwait’s OPEC Governor Mohammad Al-Shatti and National Representative Sheikh Abdullah Sabah Salem Al-Humoud Al-Sabah.

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ panel reiterated the necessity of full compliance with agreed oil output limits, including additional cuts some members must implement to offset previous quota breaches, according to an OPEC statement.

The online JMMC meeting, attended by key ministers from OPEC and allied producers led by Russia, began at approximately 12:30 GMT. While the committee monitors production compliance, it does not hold decision-making power over OPEC+ production targets but retains the authority to call extra meetings or request a full ministerial session if needed.

Since April, OPEC+ has shifted from its earlier output cut strategy, increasing quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day—roughly 2.4 percent of global demand — in an effort to regain market share. This move followed pressure from US President Donald Trump aimed at lowering oil prices.

Sources familiar with ongoing discussions revealed that a separate meeting of eight OPEC+ countries scheduled for Sunday is expected to consider a further increase in oil production for November.

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Kuwait returns to global debt markets with $11.25 billion sovereign bond issuance

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Kuwait returns to global debt markets with $11.25 billion sovereign bond issuance

Kuwait issues $11.25 billion in sovereign bonds, its first return to global debt markets since 2017.

KUWAIT CITY, Oct 2: The State of Kuwait has successfully returned to international debt markets for the first time since 2017, issuing USD 11.25 billion in sovereign bonds across three tranches, the Ministry of Finance announced Wednesday.

The landmark issuance was oversubscribed 2.5 times, with the order book reaching $28 billion, and priced at what the ministry described as “one of the lowest spreads ever for an emerging market sovereign issuer.”

According to the official statement, the bond offering includes:

  • A three-year tranche of USD 3.25 billion at +40 basis points over US Treasury yields,
  • A five-year tranche of USD 3 billion also at +40 basis points, and
  • A 10-year tranche of USD 5 billion at +50 basis points over US Treasuries.

“These spreads are significantly lower than Kuwait’s first sovereign issuance in 2017,” the ministry noted, highlighting strong market confidence in the country’s fiscal and economic outlook.

Over 66 percent of the allocations went to investors outside the Middle East and North Africa region, broken down as follows:

  • 30 percent to Europe and the United Kingdom,
  • 26 percent to the United States, and
  • 10 percent to Asia, underlining Kuwait’s wide global investor appeal.

Commenting on the success, Dr. Subaih Al-Mukhaizeem, Minister of Electricity, Water, and Renewable Energy, Minister of Finance, and Acting Minister of State for Economic Affairs and Investment, stated that the issuance “embodies the confidence of global markets in Kuwait’s financial strength, prudent policies, and robust reserves.”

Dr. Al-Mukhaizeem emphasized that this historic move is not solely aimed at covering financing needs, but rather “enhances Kuwait’s position in global markets and strengthens its relationships with international investors”, aligning with the country’s broader strategic development goals under New Kuwait 2035.

The Ministry noted that the offering ranks among the largest global sovereign issuances in 2025, and represents one of the year’s most heavily subscribed deals, reflecting investor confidence in Kuwait’s economic fundamentals and commitment to long-term fiscal reform.

The transaction was led by Citi, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC, JPMorgan, and Mizuho as joint global coordinators, with Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China participating as passive co-managers.

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Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers

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The headquarters of Bank of Japan is seen in Tokyo on Jan 23, 2024. (AP)

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.

The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.

The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.

However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.

“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.

But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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