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Trump raises tariffs to 104% on China, fuels fears of global economic recession

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NEW YORK, April 9: Despite significant turmoil in financial markets, threats of retaliation, and pressure from some of President Donald Trump’s key supporters to scale back his signature economic policy, Trump pressed forward with his aggressive stance on trade. On Wednesday, his administration imposed new “reciprocal” tariffs on a range of American allies and adversaries, aiming to, in his words, restore fairness and revitalize American manufacturing.

China, the primary target, now faces tariffs of at least 104%, surpassing the initially planned figures. Trump raised these tariffs further after Beijing maintained its promise to impose 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The new tariff rates, which were based on a formula involving a country’s trade deficit with the U.S., range from 11% to 50%. In this round, key U.S. trading partners such as the European Union (20%), China (34%), Japan (24%), Vietnam (46%), and South Korea (25%) were all affected, with Mexico and Canada being the only major exceptions.

These tariff hikes come just days after Trump levied a 10% universal tariff on all imports except from Mexico and Canada. The 10% tariff is not added to the new reciprocal tariffs; for instance, Japan’s tariff rate increased by 14% on Wednesday after the initial 10% was already applied.

In a recent statement, Trump declared, “Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years. But it is not going to happen anymore.” He reiterated similar remarks just hours before the tariffs went into effect, accusing other countries, particularly China, of “leaving us for dead.”

As these tariffs take effect, both Americans and people worldwide will feel the financial impact. Importers will initially bear the brunt of the tariffs, but those costs are typically passed on to wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately consumers. Foreign businesses are also likely to feel the effects, with American companies potentially seeking goods from countries with lower tariff rates.

The ongoing trade war threatens to escalate, with China’s Foreign Ministry promising to take “resolute and effective measures” to protect its interests, though no immediate retaliatory actions were announced. The market’s reaction has been swift, with several trillion dollars in U.S. stock market value evaporating since April 2, leading to heightened concerns about a global recession. JPMorgan has increased its forecast for a global recession to 60% by year-end if Trump continues with his full tariff plan.

Economists at JPMorgan highlighted that the tariff hikes under Trump’s administration represent the largest U.S. tax increase in nearly six decades. These measures could have significant consequences for household and business spending, leading to retaliation, declining business sentiment, and disruptions to global supply chains. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that American consumers will face an additional $2,100 in annual costs due to these tariffs.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has continued to make bold moves. Prior to this latest round, he had already imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese imports and 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automotive imports.

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for a U.S. recession to 45% within the next year, up from previous estimates. In a note titled “Countdown to a Recession,” the bank’s economists expressed surprise that Trump did not initially announce even higher tariffs and then scale them back.

Economists such as Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, predict that unless significant revisions are made to the tariffs, the U.S. economy will enter a recession by the second quarter of the year. There are even concerns that the tariffs could spark stagflation, a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation rises.

Despite these ominous predictions, not all analysts believe a recession is inevitable. Morgan Stanley analysts have suggested that the U.S. could avoid a downturn if Trump strikes deals with other nations to lower tariffs. Trump’s chief trade adviser, Peter Navarro, echoed this sentiment, confidently telling Fox News that he guaranteed the U.S. economy would not enter a recession.

However, even as dozens of countries have expressed a willingness to negotiate, it remains unclear whether these discussions will yield any results. Trump’s administration has made it clear that non-tariff trade barriers—such as currency manipulation, unfair tax policies, and labor conditions—are at the heart of their trade disputes, and they’ve rejected offers to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods in exchange for similar treatment.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been the hardest hit by Trump’s tariffs, and the U.S. and China are now fully engaged in a trade war. When Trump’s first term ended, the U.S. charged an average tariff rate of 19.3% on Chinese goods, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Under President Biden, these tariffs have remained largely intact, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods increasing slightly to 20.8%.

While both the U.S. and China have benefited from decades of trade, the U.S. has increasingly sought goods from other countries, such as Mexico, which overtook China as the largest source of U.S. imports in 2023. Several other Asian countries, including Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan, have also seen their trade with the U.S. surge since the start of Trump’s presidency.

Even with existing tariffs, China remained a significant supplier of goods to the U.S. in 2024, with $439 billion worth of Chinese goods entering the U.S., while the U.S. exported $144 billion in goods to China. The mutual tariffs imposed by both countries threaten to hurt domestic industries and could lead to layoffs in both nations.

If Trump were to reverse his tariff decisions, much of the economic damage could be mitigated, though some effects would likely remain. Colin Grabow, an associate director at the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, noted that Trump’s approach has damaged U.S. credibility, undermining long-standing free trade agreements and making it difficult for businesses to plan with certainty.

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More warning signs emerge for US travel industry as summer nears

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More warning signs emerge for US travel industry as summer nears

Travelers check American Airlines flight information screens for their flight status at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago on Feb 22, 2023. (AP)

WASHINGTON, May 10, (AP): Expedia Group said Friday that reduced travel demand in the United States led to its weaker-than-expected revenue in the first quarter, and Bank of America said credit card transactions showed spending on flights and lodging kept falling last month. The two reports add to growing indications that the US travel and tourism industry may see its first slowdown since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic fueled a period of “revenge travel” that turned into sustained interest in getting away.

Expedia, which owns the lodging reservation platforms Hotels.com and VRBO as well as an eponymous online travel agency, was the latest American company to report slowing business with both international visitors and domestic travelers. Airbnb and Hilton noted the same trends last week in their quarterly earnings reports.

Most major US airlines pulled their full-year financial guidance in April and said they planned to reduce scheduled flights, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. The USTravel Association has said that economic uncertainty and anxiety over President Donald Trump’s tariffs may explain the pullback. In April, Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for a fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Bank of America said Friday that its credit card holders were willing to spend on “nice to have” services like eating at restaurants in March and April, but “bigger ticket discretionary outlays on airfare and lodging continued to decline, possibly due to declining consumer confidence and worries about the economic outlook.”

Abroad, anger about the tariffs as well as concern about tourist detentions at the US border have made citizens of some other countries less interested in traveling to the US, tourism industry experts say. The US government said last month that 7.1 million visitors entered the U.S. from overseas this year as of the end of March, 3.3% fewer than during the first three months of 2024.

The numbers did not include land crossings from Mexico or travel from Canada, where citizens have expressed indignation over Trump’s remarks about making their country the 51st state. Both US and Canadian government data have shown steep declines in border crossings from Canada. Expedia Chief Financial Officer Scott Schenkel said the net value of the travel technology company’s bookings into the US fell 7% in the January-March period, but bookings to the U.S. from Canada were down nearly 30%. 

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Kuwait’s oil sector drives push for safer workplaces

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Minister of Oil representative Nouf Behbehani inaugurates the 12th International Conference on Occupational Safety, Health and Cybersecurity.

KUWAIT CITY, May 8: Minister of Oil representative at the 12th International Conference on Occupational Safety, Health and Cybersecurity and acting Director General of the Environment Public Authority (EPA) Nouf Behbehani has affirmed the commitment of the ministry to provide all the necessary facilities to industrialists as part of the expansion of craft and industrial enterprises supporting the oil sector. Speaking on the sidelines of the conference organized by the American Society of Occupational Safety and Health Professionals-Kuwait Branch on May 7-8, Behbehani pointed out that EPA Law No. 42/2014 and its amendment, Law No. 99/2015, require all parties to implement health and occupational regulations in newly established industrial facilities in order to obtain professional and preventative accreditation. She stressed that the authority is striving to facilitate the process of obtaining approvals and accreditation for facilities in accordance with the regulations, indicating EPA has adopted an open-door policy for all professionals and industrialists. She explained the accreditation for entities seeking to implement quality must take into account occupational health and preventive regulations, while emphasizing the need to provide awareness opportunities for the industrial and oil sectors and all sectors involved in hazardous work.

She praised the role of the conference organizers; considering this a crucial step in keeping up with developments in the fields of security, safety, and protection from fires and disasters. Moreover, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the American Society of Safety Professionals Fadel Al-Ali revealed the conference focused on the latest developments in health and safety technology and policies, procedures and changes “that make us more determined and committed to implement them.” He said the conference workshops included stakeholders from governmental and private entities; as well as specialists in health, safety and the environment, with the aim of improving performance and keeping pace with developments. He added the oil and industrial sectors are the most impacted by security and safety operations. “Therefore, the society focuses on these entities and their participation. The Ministry of Oil and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation are the sponsors of the conference. Challenges are ongoing; hence, the need for joint action to overcome them,” he stressed.

He urged all stakeholders in the oil, industrial and contracting industries to be updated on global requirements and policies, as well as utilize and implement best practices. He said the conference tackled more than 20 working papers, including research on regional and global security and safety issues. CEO of the American Society of Occupational Safety Professionals – Kuwait Branch Eng. Bader Al-Hadrami stated that artificial intelligence currently provides valuable opportunities to develop the occupational safety and health systems, including modern mechanisms that help implement requirements quickly. He added the 12th edition of the conference focuses on diverse experiences, with more than 200 participants, to achieve the greatest possible benefit for those who participate in the workshops and lectures. He stated that the most difficult challenge is cybersecurity, which has prompted the society to focus on it, based on emerging solutions. He said the discussions set specific standards for measuring the risk index in protection and developing optimal solutions.

Conference Director General Ahmed Ismail said that after 25 years of conference work, this year’s conference seeks to achieve the greatest possible success by discussing the latest developments in the field of health and safety, with the aim of producing the best recommendations that serve participants locally and regionally. He disclosed that the conference participants include ministries, government agencies, oil sector companies and the private sector — all of whom are interested in the fields of health, security, and safety. He added that the cost of implementing international safety standards is estimated at tens of millions of dollars annually, with the amount varying from one entity to another; depending on the region, entity and surrounding risks. He pointed out that spending on security and safety has increased over the past 10 years, given the heightened focus on these areas. Occupational Safety Consultant Mansour Fayez Al-Maghamsi explained that his participation in the exhibition stems from his membership in the American Society of Occupational Safety Professionals. He also presented a working paper on occupational safety and health management in petroleum refineries, as it is the main pillar for aircraft refueling and other industries. He said the society boasts of extensive expertise in cybersecurity and other areas needed by many sectors, in addition to providing members and others with the latest developments in the field of occupational health and safety.

By Najeh Bilal
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff 

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Long-haul carrier Emirates reports record annual profit of $5.2 billion

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An Emirates jetliner comes in for landing at the Dubai International Airport in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Dec 11, 2019. (AP)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, May 8, (AP): Long-haul carrier Emirates reported on Thursday that it earned annual profits of $5.2 billion, making it one of the world’s most-profitable airlines. The Dubai-based carrier served 53.7 million passengers out of its hub of Dubai International Airport, compared to 51.9 million passengers in the fiscal year prior. It had aftertax profits of $4.7 billion that same period.

The overall Emirates Group, owned by Dubai’s sovereign wealth fund known as the Investment Corporation of Dubai, saw annual profits of $5.6 billion, compared to $5.1 billion the year before. “Our excellent financial standing enables us to continue building on and scaling up from our successful business models,” said Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktom, Emirates’ chairman and chief executive.

“While some markets are jittery about trade and travel restrictions, volatility is not new in our industry,” he said. “We simply adapt and navigate around these challenges.” Emirates’ financial year runs from April 1 to March 31, including revenue from both 2024 and 2025. The carrier reported to have 260 aircraft and that it’s flying to 148 locations around the world, long relying on the Boeing 777 and the double-decker Airbus A380.

However, Emirates has begun introducing the Airbus A350 as well to its schedule. Emirates serves as a crucial link in East-West travel and is the crown jewel of what experts and diplomats refer to as “Dubai Inc.” – a series of interconnected companies overseen by the sheikhdom’s ruling Al Maktoum family. The Emirates’ results track with those for its base, Dubai International Airport.

The world’s busiest airport for international travelers had a record 92.3 million passengers pass through its terminals in 2024. The airport now plans to move to the city-state’s second, sprawling airfield in its southern desert reaches in the next 10 years in a project worth nearly $35 billion. A real-estate boom and the city’s highest-ever tourism numbers have made Dubai a destination as well as a layover.

However, the city is now grappling with increasing traffic and costs pressuring both its Emirati citizens and the foreign residents who power its economy. As one of seven hereditarily ruled, autocratic sheikhdoms that make up the United Arab Emirates, Dubai provided Emirates over $4 billion in a bailout at the height of the pandemic. In its report on Thursday, Emirates said it had repaid $3.6 billion of that loan.

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