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Oil prices crash as Iran blinks

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NEW YORK, June 24, (AP): If oil prices are any measure, Iran just flinched. The price of oil tumbled Monday afternoon in an historical move as traders bet that Iran’s decision to bomb a U.S. base in Qatar signaled it was not planning to do the one thing that could really hurt America: Shut down the flow of oil by attacking crude shipments. “When the response comes and it is muted, oil drops,” said Tom Kloza, chief market strategist at consultancy Turner Mason & Co, calling the limited Iran response far short of what many traders feared.

“This rivals some of the historic selloffs.” There’s still plenty Iran could do to push prices back up, and the markets could be getting it all wrong, But oil analysts say there are plenty of reasons fear has receded. Adding to the odds that prices will settle, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a complete ceasefire, though the situation remained unclear. The price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fell 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel in regular trading on Monday after Iran announced a missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which the U.S. military uses. Traders were relieved because Iran said it had matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear sites this weekend, a possible sign of a desire to de-escalate the conflict. The price of oil fell further after Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” to be phased in over 24 hours. Oil fell almost 4% to $65.84 a barrel early Tuesday, and is now below where it was before fighting between Iran and Israel began over a week ago, when a barrel of U.S. crude was just above $68. Markets were initially nervous Sunday as oil futures opened for trading.

The price of Brent crude, the international standard, had jumped 4% as traders anxiously watched the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern border that legislators in Tehran were demanding be closed in retaliation. That would have walloped the global economy because much of world’s crude and liquified gas passes through it. Brent crude was trading at $68.06 per barrel, down 3.5%, early Tuesday. That’s good news for Trump, who wants the Federal Reserve to stop worrying about inflation and start cutting interest rates. It’s also good for motorists this summer if the trend holds. Drivers were already paying higher prices at the pump before the U.S. attack. The average price nationwide is $3.18 per gallon, according to GasBuddy surveys, about 10 cents more than two weeks ago. Some traders doubted Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz even before its limited attack Monday. Much of country’s own crude passes through the waterway – 1.5 million barrels a day – and oil is a big revenue generator for the country that they would be loath to disrupt. “It’s a silly notion that the Iranians would look to do that,” said Kloza. “I’ve been covering oil for 50 years and we’ve never seen the Strait of Hormuz compromised.” Asked about the prospect of a shutdown on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday, Vice President J.D. Vance put it more simply: “I think that would be suicidal.” At current oil prices, Tehran receives roughly $40 billion in revenue annually from oil transiting the same waters. That is a tenth of what the entire of country produces in goods and services.

Andy Lipow, an Houston based oil analyst, says history suggests Iran won’t disrupt its own flow of oil, but that countries, like people, don’t always act in their economic interests. “The question for the oil markets is, ‘Is his time different?’,” he said. “You might have an emotional decision.” He notes also that Iran has other ways to push oil higher without completely closing off the waterway. Iran could jam navigational devices, slowing transit, or drop mines in the water, forcing the U.S. Navy to do more escorts. Or it could bomb a tanker, he said, sending the premiums that shippers need to pay insurers sky high. If traders are wrong and oil shoots back up, the impact could be widely felt. A surge in oil prices would come at a bad time. Trump insists that the inflation scare is largely over, but many economists think higher prices are still coming because the full impact of his tariffs are only now beginning to show up on everyday goods. Trump is clearly aware things could change fast. “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” he wrote on Truth Social Monday, adding. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”

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Ethiopia inaugurates Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam as neighbors eye power imports

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A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia on Sept 9. (AP)

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, Sept 10, (AP): Ethiopia on Tuesday inaugurated Africa’s largest dam to boost the economy, end frequent blackouts and support the growth of electric vehicle development in a country that has banned the importation of gasoline-powered vehicles. As reservoir waters flowed into the turbines of the Grand Renaissance Dam, Ethiopians dressed in colorful regalia viewed the ceremony on large screens across the capital, Addis Ababa, and celebrated the achievement with dancing to traditional music.

“We will have enough power to charge our electric vehicles from the new dam,” said Belay Tigabu, a bus driver in Addis Ababa’s main bus terminal. The almost $5 billion mega-dam, located on the Blue Nile tributary of the Nile River near Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, will produce more than 5,000 megawatts and is expected to double national electricity generation capacity, according to officials. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, speaking during the launch, said the dam was a “big achievement” that would show the world what Africans are capable of accomplishing.

Dozens of visiting African heads of state and government joined Abiy for the inauguration, with many expressing interest in importing power from Ethiopia. “I am proud to announce we will soon be signing an agreement with the government of Ethiopia to receive electricity from the dam that will benefit our hospitals and schools,” said South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir. Kenyan President William Ruto said his nation is looking to sign a power purchasing agreement with Ethiopia based on the resources of the dam project, which he said was a “pan-African statement.”

Already an importer of Ethiopia electricity, Ruto said Kenya is seeking to alleviate the electricity deficit his country is experiencing. He said the dam “exemplifies the scale and ambition of African-led infrastructure and aligns with the Africa Union’s vision of continental energy connectivity.” But Ethiopia’s new dam has faced controversy, with neighboring Egypt expressing concerns over reduced water flows downstream.

Egypt has long opposed the dam because of concerns it would deplete its share of Nile waters. The Arab world’s most populous country relies almost entirely on the Nile to supply water for agriculture and its more than 100 million people. Tamim Khallaf, a spokesperson for Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The Associated Press that the dam posed an “existential threat.”  

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Asian shares mostly rise, cheered by Wall Street rally to more records

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A dealer stands near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), (left), and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea on Sept 10. (AP)

TOKYO, Sept 10, (AP): Asian shares mostly rose in early Wednesday trading, echoing record rallies on Wall Street after the latest update on the job market bolstered hopes the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% to finish at 43,837.67. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.3% to 8,830.40.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.7% to 3,314.66. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1% to 26,223.30, while the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.2% to 3,814.63. Uncertainty is still in the air over US-China tariff issues as bilateral talks continue. US President Donald Trump has raised taxes on imports from China, triggering a tit-for-tat tariff war.

The U.S. is currently charging an additional 30% tariff on Chinese goods and China is charging a 10% tariff under a de-escalation deal reached in May. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and squeaked past its all-time high set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 196 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.4%.

They likewise set records. Traders have become convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate for the first time this year at its next meeting in a week, in order to prop up the slowing job market. A report on Tuesday offered the latest signal of weakness, when the US government said its prior count of jobs across the country through March may have been too high by 911,000, or 0.6%.

That was before President Donald Trump shocked the economy and financial markets in April by rolling out tariffs on countries worldwide. The bet on Wall Street is that such data will convince Fed officials that the job market is the bigger problem now for the economy than the threat of inflation worsening because of Trump’s tariffs.

That would push them to cut interest rates, a move that would give the economy a boost but could also send inflation higher. A lot is riding on Wall Street’s hope that the job market is slowing by just the right amount: Investors have already sent US stock prices to records because of it. Inflation also needs to stay at a reasonable level, even though it looks tough to get below the Fed’s target of 2%. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.08% from 4.05% late Monday.

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Real estate transactions dip sharply in Kuwait

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KUWAIT CITY, Sept 9: The real estate market witnessed a significant decline in the number and value of transactions in the first week of September, compared to the same period last year, as well as the last week of August. This is a clear indication that the market has entered a period of relative calm and investment anticipation driven by seasonal factors and qualitative shifts in transactions, particularly commercial real estate, which accounted for about 60 percent of the total trading value during the week, compared to only three transactions. It reflects the interest of major institutions or entities in ‘heavy’ commercial transactions. The weekly report of the Real Estate Registration and Documentation Department at the Ministry of Justice for the period from Sept 1 to 3 showed that the number of real estate transactions was 62, with a total value of KD83.92 million.

These include 37 private transactions worth KD 13.5 million, 22 investment transactions worth KD 17.6 million, and three commercial transactions worth KD 52.8 million. Compared to the first week of September 2024, weekly trading recorded a decline of approximately 39 percent in the number of transactions, compared to a 16.8 percent increase in total value due to the completion of qualitative commercial deals. The number of transactions during that period reached 101, valued at KD 69.8 million, reflecting a quantitative decline versus a qualitative increase in transactions on an annual basis. Compared to trading during the fourth (and final) week of August 2025, the decline was more severe, with 139 transactions recorded, valued at KD 163.24 million.

This is a decline of approximately 55 percent in the number of transactions (77 transactions) and a 49 percent decrease in the value or KD 79.32 million. It is a clear indication that the market has entered a short-term slowdown after a remarkable wave of activity in August. Regarding private real estate transactions, they declined from 89 in the last week of August to just 37, a decrease of nearly 58 percent. The value also fell from KD 33.4 million to KD 13.5 million — by KD19.9 million, a decrease of nearly 60 percent. This indicates a decline in residential ownership activity due to travel or investors’ anticipation of market movements following the recent enactment of several real estate laws. Despite the decline in the number of investment transactions from 28 in August 2025 to 22 in September, the value of transactions increased to KD 17.6 million, compared to KD 15.3 million in August. It means continued demand for investment properties and the search for attractive, quality opportunities. As for commercial transactions, only three transactions were recorded this week, worth KD52.8 million or 60 percent of the total weekly trading value. It shows the execution of quality deals and investors’ focus on quality transactions and assets with long-term returns.

By Marwa Al-Bahrawi
Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff

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