The current glut in the oil market is the reason behind the decline in oil prices to below $70 per barrel, with prices currently hovering around $68 and no signs of recovery yet. OPEC+ continues to maintain maximum output, which is contributing to the ongoing oversupply. There appears to be a hidden war with non-OPEC producers in an attempt to stabilize prices, but so far, this strategy has had little effect. The problem continues and is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. As a result, the oil market seems to be left to adjust on its own, with prices driven by market forces regardless of the outcome. Is this a deliberate move by OPEC+ to keep oil prices within a “comfort zone” for the benefit of both buyers and OPEC. With OPEC+ increasingly limited in its ability to influence prices, traditional measures such as production cuts and quota distribution are no longer effective. While OPEC appears to be adapting to lower oil prices for now, it may be reluctant to implement further production cuts that could benefit non-OPEC producers at the expense of its own market share.
However, the ongoing weakness in oil prices is forcing OPEC+ members to borrow from international banks to meet annual budget requirements. In Kuwait’s case, the fiscal year that ended on March 31 saw a budget deficit of approximately KD 1.3 billion, which is significantly lower than the earlier projected deficit of KD 3-4 billion. This is relatively good news for the country, as it reduces the need for external borrowing or the sale of overseas assets to cover the shortfall. It may now be the right time to reassess our fiscal policy and focus on reducing unnecessary expenditures, particularly those that benefit some individuals rather than the state. It is time to cut down on unwarranted expenses. The currently weak crude oil prices is bad news for oil-producing countries, as it leads to larger deficits in their annual budgets. However, in the long term, lower prices are expected to stimulate global demand for oil.
That said, this is not yet the case. Increased U.S. tariffs on imports from most countries trading with it are fueling infl ation and dampening overall demand, including demand for services tied to energy consumption, such as crude oil. Global oil demand is softening, with the U.S. seeing a decline in crude imports, now averaging around six million barrels per day. Domestic production stands at 13.3 million barrels per day, down by roughly 200,000 barrels per day. This imbalance is contributing to further drops in oil prices, with U.S. crude trading below $67 per barrel. On the positive side, lower fuel prices are making travel and driving more affordable, especially during the winter season, which could lead to a seasonal boost in demand. Today’s oil market remains uncertain and offers little indication of a positive turnaround. With weak global demand and oil prices falling below $70 per barrel, and potentially declining further, the outlook remains gloomy. The recent increase in U.S. tariffs on its close trading partners is adding to global inflationary pressures. In response, those partners may impose retaliatory tariffs, further intensifying inflation and reducing overall demand. This, in turn, will put additional downward pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ currently finds itself unable to intervene to stabilize the oil prices. Any attempt to adjust output could risk losing more of its legitimate market share to non- OPEC producers. Given these conditions, now may not be the right time for OPEC+ to step in.
TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.
The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.
The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.
However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.
“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.
But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.
Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>
Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees
KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.
Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.
By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)
MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum.