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Global Economy Shows Signs of Improvement in Q2 2025: AEO

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Global Economy Shows Signs of Improvement in Q2 2025: AEO

Jamal Al-Loughani, Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO), formerly known as OAPEC.

KUWAIT CITY, Aug 13: The global economy showed signs of relative improvement in the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by accelerated spending on imports in anticipation of higher US tariffs, alongside a general improvement in global financial conditions. This was revealed by Jamal Al-Loughani, Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO), in a statement to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) on Wednesday, following the release of the organization’s second quarterly report on the global oil market.

Al-Loughani noted that the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 was revised upward to 3%, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.8%. He attributed this positive shift to factors such as improved financial conditions and preemptive import spending. However, he cautioned that the lack of comprehensive trade agreements continues to stir concerns about the long-term impact of ongoing global trade uncertainties.

Despite this uptick in global growth, Al-Loughani pointed to a concerning 12.1% decline in the average spot prices of the OPEC basket of crudes, which fell to USD 67.4 per barrel during the second quarter. The prices of crude oil futures also recorded quarterly losses, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by 10.8%, reaching $66.8 and $63.7 per barrel, respectively.

The AEO Secretary-General attributed the drop in oil prices to several factors, including shifts in US trade policy, growing concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, and weaker oil demand. Additionally, he mentioned that the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating due to rising government debt and a slowdown in China’s industrial production and retail sales further dampened investor sentiment.

Global oil supplies showed a slight increase, rising by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 104 million barrels per day. This uptick was largely due to increased output from OPEC+ nations and the United States. On the demand side, however, global oil consumption saw a modest decline of 0.03% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by weaker demand from China and other Asian countries.

OPEC member states experienced a 9.5% decrease in crude oil exports during the second quarter of 2025, dropping to approximately $100 billion. This drop in revenue was primarily attributed to falling oil prices. Al-Loughani noted that these developments had a direct impact on the economic performance of member states, with a decline in oil revenues negatively affecting public finances and external accounts.

Despite these challenges, he emphasized that OPEC member states continued to pursue economic reforms aimed at reducing inflation, stimulating investment, and boosting labor market growth. Furthermore, the non-oil sector provided some support to these economies, helping to mitigate the overall economic impact.

Looking ahead, Al-Loughani expressed optimism for the continued growth of the oil sector, particularly with the OPEC+ decision to implement additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023. These cuts are set to gradually increase production, reaching 411,000 barrels per day in July, 548,000 barrels per day in August, and 457,000 barrels per day in September. This increase in oil production is expected to positively affect oil revenues, which remain a crucial source of national income for member states.

Despite these positive steps, Al-Loughani warned that the global oil market remains surrounded by uncertainty. While OPEC forecasts indicate a decline in oil supplies from non-OPEC+ countries in the third quarter of 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise to approximately 105.5 million barrels per day. These projections, however, remain speculative due to several ongoing uncertainties, including escalating global trade tensions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and concerns over global economic growth.

Al-Loughani praised the continued efforts by OPEC+ countries, including six members of the Arab Energy Organization, to maintain balance and stability in the global oil market. These ongoing precautionary measures are aimed at ensuring the oil market remains resilient amid global economic and geopolitical challenges.

While the global economy has shown signs of recovery in the second quarter of 2025, the outlook for the oil market remains volatile, with both supply and demand factors contributing to continued uncertainty.

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Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers

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The headquarters of Bank of Japan is seen in Tokyo on Jan 23, 2024. (AP)

Japan’s central bank survey shows an improved outlook for manufacturers”>

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TOKYO, Oct 1, (AP): Sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for a second straight quarter, according to a closely watched Bank of Japan survey, making a rate hike by its central bank more likely. The quarterly survey, called the “tankan,” showed the outlook among major manufacturers, the key so-called diffusion index, rose 1 point to plus 14 from the findings in June.

The survey is an indicator of companies foreseeing good conditions minus those feeling pessimistic. The tankan for large manufacturers was plus 12 in March, marking the first drop in a year. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers was unchanged at plus 34, according to the latest tankan. The relative optimism in the latest tankan reflects some relief over an agreement on tariffs with the US, reached in July.

The deal with the administration of President Donald Trump imposes a 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US. Some goods face higher tariffs. Initially, the US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, so the latest deal is an improvement for Japanese automakers. It also increases certainty over US policy, at least for now.

However the higher tariffs imposed on exports to the world’s biggest market are still squeezing profits, wages, investment and spending for many industries. Kei Fujimoto, senior economist at SuMi Trust, said that despite the concerns about the tariffs’ impact on Japanese corporate earnings, the damage so far has been relatively limited. Inbound tourism is also helping.

“We do not believe inbound-related demand from tourists has peaked. The number of tourists visiting Japan continues to show an upward trend,” he said. The tankan findings could influence an upcoming decision by the Bank of Japan on interest rates. The BOJ has kept rates near zero for years to help stimulate consumer spending and business investment and counter weak demand that led to deflation.

But prices have risen above the central bank’s target range of about 2%. The tankan shows the average inflation outlook for one year ahead was unchanged at 2.4%. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate soon, but it’s unclear if it will do so at the next meeting later this month, or later. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.5% from 0.1% earlier this year.

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Kuwaiti investments in Türkiye surpass $2 billion

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Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, at a reception organized by the embassy with the attendees

KUWAIT CITY, Sept 30: Ambassador of Türkiye to Kuwait, Tuba Nur Sonmez, has said that there are 427 Kuwaiti companies currently operating in Türkiye, with Kuwaiti investments exceeding two billion dollars, and that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached approximately 700 million dollars in 2024. In her speech at a reception organized by the embassy to mark the visit of the President of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, Ambassador Sonmez stressed that the leadership of both countries places great importance on enhancing bilateral relations, which gained new momentum following the visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Meshal Al- Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah to Türkiye last year. She explained that His Highness’s visit to Ankara witnessed the signing of several agreements in the fields of bilateral trade, defense industry, and investment. Cooperation between the two countries covers various sectors, including trade, defense, tourism, and investment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan met with His Highness the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah on the sidelines of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Also, the Turkish Embassy has hosted many high-level Turkish officials over the past two years, including Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat and Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet imek, who held meetings and events with the Kuwaiti business community. Ambassador Sonmez affirmed that Turkiye and Kuwait are partners in all fields, based on their shared history, religious and cultural affinity, as well as common values, visions, and vibrant business communities, which are the most important pillars upon which bilateral relations are built. She clarified that the current volume of trade and investment figures does not fully reflect the depth of the relationship, affirming the mutual need to connect the business sectors of both countries, build new bridges, and strengthen dialogue. The ambassador said the visit of the Head of the Investment and Finance Office presents an opportunity to unlock joint potential, build new partnerships, undertake bold investments, and shape a future driven by mutual growth.

Meanwhile, Head of the Investment and Finance Office at the Turkish Presidency Ahmet Burak Daglioglu, on the sidelines of the reception, revealed that the visit was aimed at meeting investors, exploring available opportunities in various economic sectors, and encouraging them to invest capital, especially given the existing collaboration between the Investment Office and many Kuwaiti investors in Turkiye. He affirmed that the office supports most Kuwaiti companies with investments in Türkiye. During his visit to Kuwait, Daglioglu toured the headquarters of those companies, met with their owners, and explored opportunities to expand cooperation, particularly as the office reports directly to the Presidency. He stressed that the office aims to attract more capital in new sectors such as insurance, technology, and financial services, in addition to the traditional sectors that have long seen investment in Türkiye, such as the banking sector, particularly Islamic finance. Daglioglu emphasized that supporting entrepreneurs in the technology sector is a top priority for the office, as is assisting Kuwaiti youth in establishing their tech ventures in Türkiye, given its advanced digital infrastructure, adding that the office also helps them overcome most bureaucratic hurdles related to obtaining licenses.

By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies

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Mexico urges US ‘consideration’ over new vehicle tariffs

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Mexico urges US 'consideration' over new vehicle tariffs

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum attends her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on April 2. (AP)

MEXICO CITY, Sept 30, (Xinhua): Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she hoped the United States would show “consideration” toward Mexico following the US decision to impose new tariffs on heavy vehicle imports. “We are already in talks, hoping there will be consideration toward Mexico,” Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference, adding the tariffs could be problematic for both countries.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a slew of new tariffs, including a 25-percent tariff on imported heavy vehicles starting Oct 1, as part of his policy to strengthen the domestic industry. Sheinbaum noted that under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, Mexico’s exports have grown in sectors not subject to tariffs, particularly those excluding finished vehicles, steel or copper, benefiting from the accord’s “zero-tariff” scheme. “Trade ties with the United States continue to be very important and a very significant competitive advantage for Mexico,” said Sheinbaum. 

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